The stakes couldn't be higher.
This July, Venezuelans will vote for the first time in more than a decade in a presidential election for an opposition candidate with a good chance of victory, if a narrow margin and a slim chance of victory.
In the midst of an economic and democratic crisis that has seen more than 7 million Venezuelans flee their country and become the world's largest displaced population, the country's authoritarian president, Nicolas Maduro, has done something few people thought possible: I did it. He allowed an opposition candidate with widespread support to run. It will be listed on the ballot paper.
Although little is known, the challenger is leading in several opinion polls, highlighting how many Venezuelans want change.
Still, few people have any illusions that voting will be democratic and fair. And even if a majority of voters vote against Mr. Maduro, there are growing doubts whether Mr. Maduro will allow the results to be made public or even accept them if they are made public.
Venezuela is preparing to vote at a time when the country faces serious issues that will reverberate far beyond its borders.
That includes overseeing the fate of the country's vast oil reserves, the world's largest. Whether or not to reset the deteriorating relationship with the United States is a different matter. Determine whether Iran, China and Russia can continue to rely on Venezuela as key allies in the Western Hemisphere. And it faces an internal humanitarian crisis that has plunged the once-prosperous country into untold suffering.
A Maduro victory would push Venezuela further into the hands of U.S. enemies, intensifying poverty and repression and prompting an even larger exodus of people to the United States, where a surge in immigration is a central theme of November's presidential election. may cause. election.
His opponent is Edmundo González, a former diplomat who became the opposition's unexpected matchmaker after popular opposition leader María Colina Machado was barred from running by Maduro's government.
His supporters hope he can help the country abandon the Chavez movement, a 25-year-old socialist movement that began with Hugo Chavez's democratic election in 1998 and has since become more authoritarian. ing.
Ahead of the July 28 vote, Maduro, 61, has taken control of the legislature, military, police, judicial system, national electoral commission, national budget and much of the media, as well as violent militias. ing. He is called colectivos.
Mr. González, 74, and Mr. Machado, 56, made it clear that they were in a package deal. Machado rallies voters at events around the country, where she is treated like a rock star. fill a block with people make an emotional plea In order for her to save the country. Mr. González has been staying near the capital, Caracas, holding meetings and giving television interviews.
González said in a joint interview that he was “surprised” when Maduro allowed him to register as a candidate, but there was still no clear explanation as to why.
Mr. Maduro has held elections in recent years, but a key tactic has been to ban legitimate challengers.
The last presidential election was in 2013, when Maduro narrowly defeated longtime opposition leader Enrique Capriles. In the next vote, in 2018, the government barred the country's most popular opposition lawmaker from running, and the United States, the European Union and dozens of other countries refused to recognize the results.
But Machado said the country has seen a series of events in recent months that few could have imagined. Mr. Maduro's government allowed an opposition primary vote to be held, and turnout was very high, making Mr. Machado the clear winner. The opposition, which was notorious for internal conflicts, was able to unite around Machado. When she was unable to run, her opposition leaders banded together to support her replacement, Mr. González.
“Never in 25 years have we entered an electoral process in such a strong position,” Machado said.
(Both men declined to say exactly what role Machado might play in González's government.)
Three national opinion polls found that a majority of respondents plan to vote for González.
In more than a dozen interviews conducted in different parts of the country this month, voters showed broad support for the opposition.
“He will win, I'm sure of that,” said Elena Rodriguez, 62, a retired nurse from Sucre state. Rodriguez said 11 members of her family left the country to escape poverty.
Maduro still maintains some support in Venezuela and can lure people to the ballot box with promises of food and other incentives.
Jesús Mesa Díaz, 59, one of Maduro's supporters in Sucre, said he would vote for the current president because he trusts him to get the country through the economic problems he blames on U.S. sanctions. Told.
But perhaps the most important question is not whether Mr. Gonzalez can muster enough votes to win, but whether he is ready or willing to cede power to Mr. Maduro.
Maduro's government is suffocated by U.S. sanctions on the country's vital oil industry, and some analysts say allowing González to run could help push Washington to ease sanctions. The analysis suggests that the reason was simply that there was no such thing.
“I think the negotiations with the United States are making the electoral process possible,” said Luz Mary Reyes, a prominent Venezuelan journalist.
Maduro has given little indication that he is ready to step down. He promised a crowd of supporters in February that he would win the election “by trick or by crook.”
Since January, Machado's government has detained and imprisoned 10 members of his political team. Another five have arrest warrants and are hiding out in the Argentine embassy in Caracas.
Abi Roa, the wife of Machado's party leader Emil Brandt, who has been detained since March, called her husband's detention a “terrible horror.” Irama Macias, the wife of imprisoned Machado ally Luis Camacarro, said his detention was “very cruel” and “should never happen anywhere in the world.”
Laura Dibb, a Venezuela expert at the Washington firm's Latin America office, said the anti-fascism law proposed in Congress could allow the government to suspend González's campaign at any time. “This is always a risk,” she added.
If Maduro were to relinquish power, it would almost certainly be as a result of a withdrawal agreement negotiated with the opposition.
Machado said his main challenges are that keeping Maduro in power is unsustainable: the government is running out of money, and there are too many Venezuelans who want Maduro to step down. , and has repeatedly insisted that the goal is to make people understand that Chavismo is collapsing from within.
“The best option is a negotiated exit,” she said in an interview, “and the longer we wait, the worse the situation will be.”
The country's economic situation is dire, much of Mr. Maduro's support base is hostile to him, and there are signs that Mr. Maduro fears internal divisions. Maduro recently imprisoned and imprisoned a senior ally, Oil Minister Tarek El-Aissami. He is accused of corruption.
This move was seen as a warning to anyone who might challenge him from within.
But few see Mr. Maduro as weak enough to be forced to resign. And Mr. Maduro has strong incentives to hold back. He and other government officials are under investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. He is also wanted by the US government, which has offered $15 million for information leading to his arrest.
If Maduro were to resign from office, he would almost certainly want protection from prosecution, but that may be difficult to guarantee.
Still, Machado and González said in a joint interview that they intend to negotiate a peaceful transition with Maduro's government before the election.
“We are absolutely motivated to move forward to put all the necessary terms and guarantees on the table so that all parties feel it is a fair process,” Machado said.
A senior U.S. government official said there was no current indication that talks were taking place about Mr. Maduro's resignation.
But the official added that Maduro's government remains in dialogue with U.S. officials and opposition groups, a sign that Maduro continues to seek international legitimacy and sanctions relief. That could change his stance and provide a glimmer of optimism for the country's future, officials said.
Isaen Herrera Contributing report from Caracas, Venezuela. Nairobis Rodriguez, from Cumana, Venezuela.and Genevieve Gratzky Originally from Bogotá, Colombia.
