JERUSALEM — The death of Iran's president is unlikely to result in any immediate changes to Iran's ruling structure or overarching policies determined by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
But Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash on Sunday, was seen as the front-runner to succeed the 85-year-old supreme leader, and his death will ultimately lead to the job passing to Khamenei's son. The possibility is increasing.
Hereditary succession could pose a potential crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic, which was established as an alternative to the monarchy but is already viewed by many Iranians as a corrupt dictatorship.
Let's see what happens next.
How does the Iranian government work?
Iran holds regular presidential and parliamentary elections through universal suffrage.
However, the supreme leader has the final say on all major policies, serves as commander-in-chief of the military, and commands the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
The Supreme Leader is also appointed by the Guardian Council, a 12-member body that vets candidates for the presidency, parliament, and the Council of Experts, an organization of election law scholars responsible for selecting the supreme leader. Appoint half of the members.
In theory, the cleric oversees the republic to ensure it complies with Islamic law. In practice, the Supreme Leader uses the ruling system to balance competing interests, advance his own priorities, and ensure that no one challenges the Islamic Republic or his role at its apex. are carefully managed.
Raisi, a hardliner considered a disciple of Ayatollah Khamenei, was elected president in 2021 after the Guardian Council blocked candidacies by other prominent candidates, resulting in the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic's history. was. He succeeded Hassan Rouhani, a relatively moderate who had been president for the past eight years and defeated Raisi in 2017.
After Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokbel, an unnamed relative, became interim president and an election was required within 50 days, according to Iran's constitution. That vote will likely be carefully managed to produce a president who maintains the status quo.
This means that Iran will continue to impose some degree of Islamic rule and repress opposition. It would enrich uranium, support armed groups across the Middle East, and view the West with deep suspicion.
What does this mean for inheritance?
Presidents have come and gone, and there are moderates, but each operates under the structure of a ruling system.
If there is to be any major change in Iran, it will most likely be after Khamenei's death, which will be the second time since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 that a new supreme leader will be elected. Khamenei succeeded Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, in 1989.
The next supreme leader will be chosen by the 88-seat Council of Experts, which selects candidates every eight years from a pool of candidates vetted by the Guardian Council. In the most recent elections held in March, President Rouhani was barred from running, while Raisi won the seat.
It is difficult to know who will be the successor, as all discussions about succession and related intrigue take place far from the public eye. But the people analysts see as the most likely successors to Khamenei are Raisi and the supreme leader's own son Mojtaba, 55, a Shiite cleric who has held public office. Never.
What happens when the supreme leader's son becomes his successor?
Dating back to the 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic's leaders have portrayed their system as superior not only to the decadent democracies of the West, but also to military dictatorships and monarchies across the Middle East.
The transfer of power from the supreme leader to his son could anger Iranians already critical of clerical rule, as well as regime supporters who may view it as un-Islamic.
Western sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program have devastated Iran's economy. The enforcement of Islamic rule, which became even stricter under the Raisi regime, further alienated women and young people.
The Islamic Republic has faced several waves of mass protests in recent years, most recently following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 after she was arrested for allegedly not covering her hair in public. A violent crackdown has left more than 500 people dead and over 22,000 detained.
Raisi's death could make the transition to a new supreme leader more difficult and cause further unrest.
