Many top wide receivers signed new contracts this offseason, but the market was reset by the best player in the business, Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings, who agreed to a new deal worth $140 million over the next four years, with $110 million of that guaranteed, making him currently the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL.
Jefferson's big new deal is a big step for many talented receivers who have new contracts due in the coming years, including Seattle Seahawks guard DK Metcalf. Metcalf signed a three-year, $72 million extension two years ago. His contract runs through 2025 and comes with a salary cap hit of roughly $29.5 million, but the team and Metcalf are likely to begin negotiating a new contract next offseason.
Metcalf won't be able to command the $35 million average annual salary that Jefferson is making, but when accounting for inflation, fans should expect his next contract to be in the $30 million range, which is on par with the recent contracts of Amon-Ra Saint Brown and Tyreek Hill. While Metcalf is an exceptional athlete and competitor, it would be foolish not to at least stop and consider whether DK Metcalf is worth that amount.
Metcalf has consistently thrown for at least 900 yards and six touchdowns per season since being drafted, with highs of 1,300 yards and 12 scores. That's a very good mark, but given Metcalf's incredible athleticism, it's hard to shake the impression that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet. This passing chart for the 2023 season shows some issues. Metcalf struggled against man coverage and had very low EPA on deep throws.
Let’s take a look at DK Metcalf’s 2023 season. He was 18th in total yards, but he really struggled against man coverage and didn’t produce as well as he would have liked on the field, with a reception rate of 59% (136th in the league). DK is looking to bounce back in 2024. pic.twitter.com/WM2R9I8ctq
— Field Vision Sports (@FieldVisionMi) May 31, 2024
First, Metcalf needs to improve his catch rate to 59%, which is also ESPN's projection for him this season. Given his size and vertical leap, Metcalf should be able to beat most cornerbacks on deep jump balls, but he hasn't been able to do so consistently yet in his career.
If Metcalf breaks out in 2024 and ends up performing like a top-10 wide receiver as we know him, he'll be worth that much money. Until then, it's up for debate.
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This article originally appeared on Seahawks Wire
