U.S. Transportation Security Administration officials say they hope to see record passenger numbers at airport security checkpoints across the country during the peak summer travel season, which runs from Memorial Day weekend to Labor Day. He said that preparations are underway.
The sunny summer travel forecast has not been shared with Hawaii's tourism industry.
TSA officials on Thursday expected more than 3 million passengers and crew members to pass through airport security checkpoints on May 24, the biggest travel day of the Memorial Day weekend. By May 29, TSA expects to screen 18 million passengers and crew, an increase of 6.4% compared to the same period in 2023.
This is the opposite of what's happening in the archipelago, where booking data and airline seat forecasts are showing a slowdown.
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Jack Richards, president and CEO of Pleasant Holidays, said summer bookings for Hawaii are still down 28% compared to 2023. By comparison, bookings to Mexico were up 5% during the same period, and Western Europe was up by double and even triple digits, he said. To Asia.
Keith Vieira, hospitality consulting principal at KV &Associates, estimates that summer hotel bookings for Hawaii are down about 10% to 12% compared to last summer.
“I hope the TSA is right, but we are not having a good summer across the state,” said Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawaii Hotel Alliance. There's nothing to suggest. In fact, we're expecting a negative booking pace starting in June and into the rest of the year. All the hotels I know are sitting down and looking at special offers.”
“Summer seems to be shoulder season,” said Toni Marie Davis, executive director of the Hawaii Activities and Attractions Association.
Chris Kamm, Omnitrak's president and chief operating officer, said the company's research on U.S. traveler penetration confirms TSA's predictions for the summer rush. But Hawaii hasn't performed at that level, he said.
Kam said that dividing the percentage of U.S. visitors who traveled in March by the number of people who may have traveled resulted in a slightly higher penetration rate than in March 2019.
“This measure is targeted across the entire United States and marks the first time that penetration rates have exceeded 2019 levels,” Kam said. “We haven't arrived in Hawaii yet.”
He said Hawaii faces flat domestic scheduled nonstop seat capacity heading into the summer. From May to July, the number of domestic seats increased by 0.3% compared to the same period in 2023. But growth in Hawaii's core Western U.S. market was zero, according to data from the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.
Seat capacity on domestic nonstop flights to Oahu and Kauai increased, but not enough to offset single-digit declines to Kona and double-digit declines to Maui.
“It's going to be difficult to grow the U.S. market without growth in airline seats. You can't drive to Hawaii yet,” Kam said. “At best, I think they're looking at a flat summer, but there's also the issue of demand.”
He said fewer airline seats mean travelers often find it inconvenient and expensive to book trips. Kam added that the appeal of international travel will also impact demand in Hawaii's core domestic market from 2023 onwards.
“Many travelers who were planning to go overseas to Hawaii are now going to the Caribbean, Mexico, Western Europe and Asia,” Kam said.
Mr Davis said social media was making the situation worse by introducing visitors to “travel dupes”. They're looking for a place that offers the Hawaiian way, but without the guilt of seeming to be invading us, without the potential overcrowding, and perhaps the biggest benefit is without the expense. is. Hawaii is one of the most expensive vacations from the United States. I've heard that the Azores are a “travel duck” to Hawaii. ”
Richards said the booking gap could narrow, given Hawaii's shorter booking window.
“If that happens, we'll see a sharp spike right after Memorial Day,” he said. “We're trying to increase demand. On Thursday, we're offering a free Hawaii night with the 4th, 5th, and even 6th night free on your trip at 21 hotels and resorts across four islands. The sale has started.”
However, Richards added that he expects conditions to remain weak due to the continuing impact of the wildfires that broke out on Maui on Aug. 8. Immediately after the wildfires, tourism to all of Maui was shut down. Tourism to areas outside of West Maui resumed shortly thereafter, but it wasn't until November 1 that government officials allowed tourism to resume to West Maui, with the exception of Lahaina.
These restrictions, coupled with strong messages on social media, especially by celebrities, that Maui should be closed to allow wildfire survivors time to grieve and heal, could result in immediate and significant economic losses. brought about. Since then, Hawaii's tourism industry has been grappling with its reopening message, but there are still reports that travelers to Maui and other islands not affected by the wildfires are worried they won't be welcome. be.
Richards said tourist demand for Maui should improve now that the advocacy group Lahaina Strong has ended its occupation of Ka'anapali Beach.
