Consumer spending on games in the U.S. could fall by 10% this year, according to market research firm Circana.
Analyst Matt Piscatella told GamesIndustry.biz that this figure is within the “pessimistic” range of what could happen in the U.S. market in 2024, even if spending is in a more positive direction. He said he expected the next nine months to be tough.
“Right now, my most optimistic outlook is for a decline of about 2%,” Piscatella said. “If you start looking a little more pessimistically, you're looking at about a 10% decline. If things are really going sideways, you're looking a little further down the line.
“When you look at the sales data and think about the forecast for this year, there's a lot of uncertainty. There's uncertainty about the hardware. There's uncertainty about the content. Who's making the games? Are you there?”
Grand Theft Auto 6 won't be released until 2025, and the Switch 2 is understood to have been internally pushed back to the same year, with Sony telling the market that an established blockbuster won't be coming. The gaming market is facing uncertain times.
Piscatella pointed out that the two biggest games of the year so far, Helldivers 2 and Palworld, came virtually out of nowhere.
“Helldivers 2 and Palworld have done a lot of the heavy lifting earlier this year, but we're facing a comp with last year's big hit Hogwarts Legacy,” he said. Ta. “So we need another game in addition to Helldivers and Palworld to complement what Hogwarts was doing last year, and that's still going on a year later.”
He added: “The level of uncertainty this year is probably the highest I can remember. And I have been attending this competition since 2005 with uncertainty about what will get to the finish line. Yes, because there are no big matches announced.” we know. People are saying, “This year is uncertain,'' but that doesn't usually happen. ”
Circana predicted that this could be a particularly tough year for the games retailer as the new hardware Nintendo had hoped for hasn't arrived and the company's digital efforts continue.
“Retail has had to get very smart, but on the physical side of the business, retail continues to decline,” Piscatella said.
“With no new Nintendo hardware coming out this year, Nintendo is at a 50-50 split between physical and digital, but this trend will accelerate as all other companies are becoming significantly more digital. As a result, the retail industry still relies more on Nintendo than on other platforms.”
