Socialist party wins election in Catalonia, could overturn Spain's government

(Bloomberg) – Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s socialist party won Spain’s Catalonia regional elections, confirming his decision to negotiate with separatist movements in the wealthy northeast region and underscoring his vulnerable position in Madrid. There was also the possibility that the ruling coalition would be overturned.

The region's socialist candidate, Salvador Illa, matched expectations on Sunday night, winning about 28% of the vote, or 42 seats. This is far short of the 68 seats needed for an absolute majority, and there is no clear path to cobble together a coalition government, making fresh elections a real possibility.

“This is the first time that a socialist party has won an election, both in terms of votes and seats,” Illa told reporters on Sunday night. “This new phase that Catalonia opens today is a phase for all Catalans. ” he said.

Junts, run by fugitive pro-independence leader Carles Puigdemont, won about 22 percent (35 seats), making it the region's largest separatist party. The rival independence party ERC, led by Pere Aragonés and currently leading Catalonia's minority government, won 14% of the vote, reducing the number of seats to 20.

Mr. Illa's victory supported Mr. Sánchez's strategy in Catalonia to quell secessionist pressure by offering concessions, including amnesties, to those involved in the illegal 2017 independence referendum. It represents that. He has since become the most high-profile beneficiary of the pardon.

Another election in the region could benefit Puigdemont, who will be able to campaign in Catalonia once the amnesty law takes effect in the coming weeks. Puigdemont held a campaign event in Argels-sur-Mer, France, on Sunday.

Uncertainty surrounding Catalonia's parliament could pose difficulties for Sánchez's government, which relies on both major separatist groups to pass legislation. If either Mr. Puigdemont or Mr. Aragonés withdraws support for the Socialist Party in Madrid, it could lead to a deadlock in Congress and new national elections.

Illa, a mild-mannered former health minister, has little chance of forming a majority government, given that both pro-independence parties have made cooperation conditional on a new referendum on Catalan independence. He previously said it was a “red line” for socialists.

Catalonia has been ruled by separatist parties for more than a decade.

Relations between Jantz and ERC recently reached a new low. When the two major separatist parties form a coalition government in 2021, Jantz will leave the coalition and the region will head to snap elections on Sunday.

This challenge is made even more difficult for everyone by the unusually intense personal animosity between Puigdemont and Aragones.

“We had a bad result, a very bad result, in fact,” Aragonés told reporters on Sunday night. “It's up to the Socialist Party and the Gendt Party to run the government. Voters say we are the opposition party. I decided it had to be,” he said.

“If the other pro-independence party, the ERC, is ready to consider the lack of unity and the implications of a single strategy, so are we,” Puigdemont said.

Voter turnout is low

Experts and party officials say a second vote is a likely scenario. That would not be good for Catalonia and would not solve any of the fundamental problems facing Spain or its prime minister, but it could keep him on his toes for at least a few more months.

Public transport was disrupted in parts of Catalonia on Sunday due to problems with the central government-run regional rail network. The two leading pro-independence parties requested an extension of voting time in case they were unable to get to the polling place, but the National Election Commission rejected the request and left it to local committees to decide.

Voter turnout was 58%, compared to 51.3% in the previous local elections in 2021, when restrictions were in place to deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

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