Contrary to popular belief, coalition governments are generally stable and usually have full terms. So what happened in Scotland requires an explanation. Broadly speaking, first minister Humza Yousaf of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) abruptly ended an agreement with his government partners, the Scottish Greens, before they had a chance to reach a similar agreement. . The move quickly backfired, and Yousaf eventually resigned.
But how did he get into this situation in the first place?
In the 2021 Scottish general election, the SNP won 64 of the 129 seats in Parliament, falling one seat short of an overall majority. A minority government was a viable option (as was the way the SNP ruled following similar results in 2007 and 2016). However, the party, led by then-leader Nicola Sturgeon, opted to form a coalition with the Green Party instead. The Green Party also supports Scottish independence and frequently collaborated with the SNP in parliament between 2016 and 2021. Although this term was not a disaster, the SNP was tired of seeking opposition support for every bill and was desperate for the certainty of a coalition government.
The coalition also made sense from the Green Party's perspective. His one-seat win for the SNP meant a real link between the government and the opposition in parliament, reducing the opposition's ability to influence legislation. The agreement seemed to be the best chance to make an impact. The two parties therefore developed the Bute House Agreement. This is a loose coalition that includes the Green Party's deputy ministership and a common policy platform, but with effective opt-outs.
What went wrong?
Things started to go south for the Coalition in February 2023 after the fall of the Sturgeon government. Her sudden resignation left her party with a linchpin and no clear successor left. The lack of talent at the top of the SNP was exposed, and the leadership race ended in a close contest between Yousaf (the “Sturgeon” Social Democratic Party candidate) and former finance minister Kate Forbes. Forbes magazine represents the right wing of the party, which opposes the Green Party for being too economically left-wing and socially liberal (particularly on transgender rights), arguing that its positions are alienating voters. did. Mr. Yousaf narrowly won, and the Green Party agreed to continue his term.
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Yousaf initially remained loyal to the Bute House agreement, but (unlike Sturgeon) faced very vocal internal criticism of it. Meanwhile, the SNP's turmoil has breathed new life into Scottish Labor, posing a serious threat for the first time in a while.
The leadership election exposed deep rifts within the SNP and emboldened right-wing critics of the deal. The SNP increasingly acted unilaterally. A key example of this is the scrapping of council tax reform plans in October 2023 following Labor's by-election victory. A frightened Mr Yousaf returned to the SNP's previous policy of freezing council tax (despite a deepening local government funding crisis), leaving behind an angry Green Party trail.
During this period, the SNP leadership appears to have accepted claims in the media and opposition parties that the Green Party's policies and presence in government were causing the SNP's polling support to decline. However, this is not actually true, and the voters whom the Greens say have “too much influence” tend to be those who already vote Conservative. Pro-independence voters are primarily socially liberal and left-wing, and this trend has become even stronger since 2016.
This narrative also overlooks the huge damage to the SNP's reputation from a series of scandals, and its growing failures on the NHS and cost of living issues.
Why did Mr. Yousaf resign?
The immediate trigger for the crisis came on April 18, when the government announced it would withdraw the highly ambitious climate change targets set out in the Bute House agreement, also with minimal consultation with the Green Party. Ta. For Green members, it was the last straw. Party co-leaders Patrick Harvey and Lorna Slater have announced they will ask Green Party MPs to vote in May on whether the coalition should continue.
Mr. Yousaf could have chosen to leave things as they are and force the Green Party to suffer the consequences of leaving the government. Voters generally do not look favorably on parties that cause government instability, and the Greens have a reputation for being unsuitable for government.
Instead, Yousaf mysteriously chose to abandon the Greens before they had a chance to abandon him. He apparently calculated that this would make him look decisive and that the Greens would be happy to return to their 2016-2021 role as friends rather than partners of the ruling party. He must have imagined it.
If this was his intention, it is strange that he did not try to negotiate a break with the coalition and approach the Greens with a more lenient deal. Instead, he simply informed them of the end of the agreement. Smaller parties panicked, although not entirely irrationally.
When the Conservative Party tabled a motion of no confidence against Yousaf, the mistake was clear. Parliamentary arithmetic remains intact and the Greens now hold his fate in their hands. If they join the opposition and vote in favor of the motion – which they have confirmed they will soon do – he will be forced to resign.
The only way Mr Yousaf could secure his position was to strike a deal with the only MSP from former SNP leader Alex Salmond's Alba party, which he did not agree with. The next day, Scottish Labor tabled a second motion of no confidence, this time against the government as a whole. The effects of this death were even more severe for the party as a whole, and Yusaf had little choice.
The Yusaf era has come to an end, and there is now speculation about his successor. John Swinney, a key figure under Sturgeon, is quickly emerging as the frontrunner. In many ways, his appointment will demonstrate the lessons learned from Yousaf, who will be a leader recognized for his ministerial ability and track record of political nous.
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But while Mr Siwiny may restore some of the SNP's much-damaged reputation for governing ability, he still faces the problem of securing reliable parliamentary allies. The Greens were understandably cautious about entering a full coalition government in 2021, but perhaps the looseness of the agreement meant they lost control over the direction of the government. If you are faced with a choice again, you will have to think carefully.
