When we look at regional markets, we find:
middle east
- Traffic recovered quickly and quickly entered the seasonal cycle
- It's not a particularly big market.
- Use larger aircraft with fewer flights to best accommodate traffic
- As the map shows, gauging mistakes can have dire economic consequences
I-92; Air Insight
latin america
- This is a mature travel market and quickly returned to the pattern
- The US/Latin market is up to 50% larger than the US/Middle East market
- Airlines can use flexible fleets on routes up to 4,000 miles
- This map shows relative market size.
I-92; Air Insight
Asia
- Another mature market.Fast recovery with instant stabilization of patterns
- This is the largest international travel market originating from the United States
- Longer stage lengths encourage fleet selection
- But the smaller twins, especially the 787-8 and A330-900 connecting secondary cities, are likely to have a chance
This region is a vast area experiencing rapid economic growth.This map shows how much potential there is for connections between secondary cities
Europe
- This is the most mature U.S. international travel market, and its size indicates its importance.
- Resilience and pattern consistency are evident
- As in the Latin American market, there is flexibility in scope in Europe, which means fleet selection is influenced
- Being a mature market, carriers are familiar with secondary cities and their opportunities.
- New carriers like JetBlue, Norse, and PLAY will disrupt existing carriers.
3,500NM range from Boston puts the entire EU within range of a MAX 9 or A321
As this map shows, there are several markets where secondary cities can effectively serve MAX and NEO aircraft.
This makes airlines like JetBlue with their A321neos very attractive in the US. Same goes for Spirit and Frontier. Of course, the Department of Justice may not like it, but airline consolidation remains an issue. Southwest Airlines pilots believe the integration is far from over.
For example, what if an EU airline decides to invest in one of these US carriers because its fleet profile allows for creativity?
Co-founder of Air Insight. My career has included stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research and PA Consulting. I got bitten by the aviation bug and became an Avgeek. He then became obsessed with data bugs and became an Avgeek with a curious appetite for data-driven logic. I also appreciate conversations with smart people and learn a lot from them. Summary: I'm very lucky to work with and talk to some great people.
