- Written by Nick Triggle
- health correspondent
image source, Getty Images
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the UK government will spend £5.5 billion less on health than expected at this stage.
The IFS said plans set out during the 2019 election campaign showed the budget would grow by 3.3% a year over the current parliamentary period, above inflation.
However, despite the additional fiscal input to cover the high inflation seen, spending increased by only 2.7% a year on average.
The government defended its record, saying it had made additional investments.
The Department of Health and Social Care said funding was at record levels and was having a “real impact” in reducing waiting lists.
This year's health budget is £179.6 billion.
Most of it goes to the NHS, but it also includes funding for public health, social care and training.
The IFS said England was not unique in facing this challenge, given the high rates of inflation globally, and that this Parliament was more likely than Wales, but rather than many parts of Europe, including Northern Ireland and Scotland. The government also said it had increased health spending.
But pressure on the NHS and promises to increase staffing under the NHS's 15-year staffing plan, backed by the Conservatives and Labor, meant tough decisions would have to be made.
More than 40% of public service spending already goes to health care, said IFS research economist Max Warner.
And to continue increasing the budget, government spending in other areas will also need to be cut.
“No matter which party is in power after the next election, the choices they make about next year's budget and how much to donate to the Department of Health and Human Services will effectively control everything else,” he said.
“Neither the Conservatives nor Labor are keen on setting out spending plans.
“But the next government will have to confront this reality, and quickly.”
Safran Cordery, from NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, said the health service desperately needed additional funding.
“The NHS is facing its toughest financial year yet, with budgets and services stretched to the limit in the face of growing demand and pressure,” she said.
“We can't continue like this.”
Labour's shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said: “Rishi Sunak has broken every promise he's ever made about the NHS.
“He seems to have given up on rebuilding the health service.”
