Government forecasters on Thursday, including the National Hurricane Center's senior forecasters, released their best predictions for this hurricane season since the federal government's hurricane outlook began in 1999.
A team of scientists from NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, predicts that 2024 will be a stronger-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with 17 to 25 named storms and 8 to 13 hurricanes, with an 85% chance of 4 to 7 of those becoming Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes. Over the past 30 years (1991-2020), the seasonal average has been 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
Commenting on their bold prediction, NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad said, “This season is shaping up to be unusual in many ways.”
NOAA's bullish outlook follows similarly bullish forecasts by other groups, including Colorado State University, which released its best seasonal forecast to date in early April.
Record warm weather and the looming La Niña phenomenon
NOAA's forecast comes as seawater levels in the tropical Atlantic reach record highs for this time of year. As of this week, 92% of major Atlantic developing regions are experiencing record or near-record seasonal warmth. 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes occur in this region.
The incredible heat across the hurricane belt is expected to continue into the peak hurricane season of August, September and October. Government forecasters say warm sea surface temperatures favor rapid hurricane development and major hurricane development, contributing to high accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, a scorecard of hurricane season activity. It is pointed out that NOAA expects ACE to be 1.5 to 2.5 times the average, which is his second prediction after his ACE prediction in 2010.
Perhaps the biggest uncertainty this hurricane season is that La Niña is expected to arrive by late summer or early fall. A strong El Niño event in 2023 is quickly becoming a distant memory, with NOAA predicting a nearly 80% chance of a La Niña event, which cools the waters around the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, this fall as hurricane season gets into full swing. I'm predicting.
La Niña tends to reduce destructive wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, which can cause hurricanes to develop. The reduction in shear caused by La Niña is typically most pronounced in the western Atlantic and Caribbean, and could lead to storms developing closer to land, including the continental United States, as early as 2024.
There is reason to worry, but no need to worry
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said Thursday's notable seasonal hurricane forecast “gives reason for concern, but not cause for alarm.” Preseason hurricane forecasts don't tell us when or where a hurricane will strike. They can't accurately predict short-term weather conditions that far in the future. And it only takes one bad hurricane to make for a bad hurricane season, regardless of the overall number.
Graham reminded coastal residents that all Category 5 hurricanes that have made landfall in the United States in the past 100 years were either tropical storms or weaker just three days before landfall.
“This storm doesn't care about schedules,” he said, adding that now is the best time to prepare before the storm threatens.
As Florida prepares for the upcoming hurricane season, the state is offering multiple two-week sales tax holidays this summer to ease the tax burden on emergency supplies. The first sales tax holiday will be extended from June 1st to June 14th. Click here for a list of eligible disaster prevention supplies.
Mostly quiet in the Atlantic Ocean so far
The National Hurricane Center on Thursday morning highlighted an area of storms from the central Caribbean to the southwest Atlantic Ocean.
This disturbing weather is caused by a weakening of the nearby jet stream and the interaction of a widespread low pressure system. Strong winds from the nearby jet stream and the presence of dry air drawing in from the west limit the potential for development. There is a small chance for subtropical development over the next few days as the low pressure system moves into the central Atlantic and away from the islands.
Either way, the main threat is possible flooding and landslides from Haiti and the Dominican Republic to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through early next week.
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