Anite Mirijanian
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa will hold national and provincial elections on May 29, and opinion polls suggest the ruling African National Congress will lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in the democratic era but will retain its position as the largest party.
Under South Africa's constitution, voters elect a 400-member National Assembly, which in turn chooses the president by simple majority vote. The ANC has won every election since 1994, and lawmakers have elected its leader as president.
Depending on the election results, here are some possible scenarios:
ANC wins, beating opinion polls
In recent months, several opinion polls have suggested the ANC's approval rating has been hovering around 40 percent, representing a significant drop from its performance in 2019, when it won 57.5 percent of the vote.
But tracking polls suggest support for the ANC is growing in the weeks leading up to election day, and analysts say the party has an unrivalled grassroots organisation, with activists going door-to-door in communities across the country.
Over the past four election periods, the ANC's vote share has steadily declined but never by more than five percentage points from one election to the next.
If the ANC wins a majority, its leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, will most likely be re-elected as head of state in the new National Assembly.
The ANC loses its majority and Ramaphosa is ousted
If the ANC loses a significant majority and President Ramaphosa is criticised, the party could seek to oust him from his leadership position and nominate another person to be elected by the National Assembly as South Africa's president.
They will need to act quickly because the constitution requires a new National Assembly to convene within 14 days of the election results being announced to choose a president.
Most analysts say this is unlikely unless the ANC receives 40% or less of the vote (the party's worst-case scenario). A more likely scenario is that President Ramaphosa will hand power to his successor midway through his term in an orderly transition.
Whether Ramaphosa stays or goes, it is highly likely that he or the next ANC leader will become president after the election, and it would take a major upset for another party to have any chance of winning.
Whether Ramaphosa or someone else becomes president, if the ANC loses its majority it will need support from one or more other parties to stay in power.
ANC narrowly loses majority, seeks smaller partner
If the ANC gets close enough to 50 percent, it will likely try to make a pact with a small or mid-sized party to form a government.
Analysts say the conservative Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which has strong support in KwaZulu-Natal and about 5 percent support nationally, could be the ANC's first choice, but the IFP leader has said he does not want to back the ANC.
The two parties were bitter rivals in the final days of apartheid but cooperated in the Government of National Unity established after the 1994 elections.
Other potential partners include the small Islamist party Al-Jamaa and the Patriotic Union, which draws support from the mixed-race community.
ANC loses majority by large margin and seeks bigger partner
Depending on its supporters, the party may have no choice but to seek support from one of its bigger rivals, the free-market Democratic Alliance (DA) or the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
The price of any agreement with either side is likely to be significant policy concessions by the ANC and the offering of senior government positions to the other side.
Analysts say it is difficult to envisage a stable arrangement in this scenario and South Africa could face a period of unprecedented government instability.
Investors and business are keen to reach a deal with the DA, which has said it would not rule it out, but many analysts believe the ideological divide between the ANC and the DA is too great to make an agreement possible.
The EFF, led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, may be a more natural fit for the ANC, but Mr Malema's relationship with some factions of the ANC is tense.
The EFF said in April it would work with the ANC if it won the powerful post of finance minister. The ANC, which has not revealed its thoughts on majority-division scenarios, is unlikely to agree unless it is significantly weakened.
Stephen Freedman, an academic affiliated with the Universities of Johannesburg and Rhodes, said it was difficult to imagine the ANC and EFF governing together for five years.
He noted that despite the two sides being largely aligned on land reform, they were unable to agree on a constitutional amendment regarding land reform last year.
(Additional reporting by Nellie Payton; Editing by Estelle Silbon and Toby Chopra)
