Although China's artificial intelligence technology is rapidly advancing, it is not an immediate national security threat to the United States.
This is a common refrain in technology boardrooms and government hallways. China is actively challenging the United States in an artificial intelligence arms race. Whoever wins will dominate the geopolitical landscape and the global economy for generations.
For many years, Department of Defense official Celebrities from the technology world Eric Schmidt, Peter Thieland alex karp I've been parroting this doomsday scenario.
However, the story is not convincing.
persuasive evidence that China's AI capabilities overrated. Although China's technology is rapidly advancing, it is not an immediate national security threat.consider this another perspective From retired US Air Force Lieutenant General Jack Shanahan:With AI making the same kind of false “bomber-missile gap” assessments it did against the Soviet Union in the early 1960s, it seems we are getting dangerously close to a dangerous situation. You may feel that way. ”
cold war era Bomber–missile gap It was an illusion, but it set off a nuclear arms race with devastating political, environmental, and psychological consequences. It was also extremely expensive, costing U.S. taxpayers $5.8 trillion. one quote. That's over $11 trillion today.
Any rational geopolitical analysis must take China's challenges into account.country's economy is slowing down 20 years with no end in sight.a population decline By the end of this century, China's population will be halved.a brain drain Bringing talented Chinese researchers to Australia, Canada and the European Union.As the outgoing president of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen said this last fall.China is too busy with its domestic problems to invade Taiwan.
So, why do we have this idea? A cataclysmic battle between “AI superpowers” Did you get caught? The answer is deceptively simple. Because for some people, war is profitable. Preparing for algorithmic warfare is even more important.
The Chinese AI threat narrative is helping to legitimize and accelerate the Pentagon’s demand for high-tech weapons, surveillance, and logistics systems. US defense technology spendingWhile directing government AI research toward military rather than civilian uses. Technology companies are lining up for their share of the Pentagon's $886 billion annual budget, but they're not alone. Amazon, microsoft, Googleand Palantiras well as hundreds of Silicon Valley Defense technology startup funded by venture capital.
These companies also do business with foreign militaries, including Google. Google's $1.2 billion contract with the Israeli Ministry of Defense sparked protests among employees appalled by the company's support for the Gaza war. Earlier this week, Google fired 28 employees over the protests.
These changes are changing the nature of society. military industrial complex. In 1961, President Eisenhower warned Americans that unlimited defense spending would give defense companies “undue influence” over Congress and threaten democracy.
This is still true today.dozens Former Pentagon officials now work for venture capital firms. ”revolving door” The relationship between the Pentagon and private industry remains strained, but military personnel may gravitate toward Silicon Valley investment firms over Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and other “traditional” defense companies. expensive.
This would have dire consequences for future wars. High-risk defense technology startups Rapid growth, a profitable business model, an aggressive marketing campaign, and an acceleratedhype cycle” Meanwhile, business executives make unusual but unverifiable claims about their products.
Such practices may be acceptable in consumer goods, but more is at stake when the Silicon Valley startup model is applied specifically to military products. Weapons equipped with AI and monitoring system unpredictable decisionsor Fails when operating environment changes. Introducing poorly tested technology will result in the deaths of innocent people and American soldiers.
If the pace of development and deployment of military AI weapons and surveillance systems continues to accelerate, we will end up with an expensive arsenal of flawed, unreliable, and dangerous technologies that do not perform as advertised. It will be.
Roberto J. Gonzalez is a professor in the Department of Anthropology at San Jose State University. His latest book is War Virtually: The Quest to Automate Conflict, Militarize Data, and Predict the Future.
