Next Thursday is “Take Your Child to Work Day.” For those who work from home, it's probably like a day off from school. (I have no intention of taking my son Robbie to work. As I write this, he is pedaling his bike from Chicago to New York and slept last night at Bill Cosgrove's modest residence in Union Homes.) We don't track his exact whereabouts, but we all know that owning a smartphone means giving up almost all of your privacy. For example, a new research paper posted to the National Bureau of Economic Research seeks to examine polling data showing that 22 percent of Americans report attending religious services weekly. They conducted this study by examining geographic data from 2 million people's smartphones in 2019 and found that 73% of people actually visit a place of worship at least once throughout the year on major worship days. It turned out that he had stepped on it only five times. The actual percentage of Americans surveyed, surveyed weekly, was significantly lower than the data people reported to pollsters. (You can find it here. This week's podcast is sponsored by Optimal Blue. OB's smart solutions automate critical functions like pricing, hedging, trading, social media, and more. To support your own business. More originators and investors are taking advantage of Optimal Blue's integrated solutions, data, and connections, no matter how complex their strategies. Interviews with Robbie and I on a variety of mortgage topics related to Daily Commentary. please listen.)
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
Dear strategy leaders! If you're interested in improving your business, don't miss this event. Femi Ayi, Vice President of Operations at Revolution Mortgage; Brooke Smith, Senior Manager of Loan Sourcing Digital Solutions at Fannie Mae; Jodi Eberhardt, Director of Strategic Integration at Freddie Mac; and Richard Grieser, Vice President of Marketing at Truv. He introduces various strategies. Provide customers with a more transparent and efficient borrowing experience. Freddie Mac's Loan Product Advisor® Asset and Income Modeler (AIM) and Fannie Mae's Desktop Underwriter® (DU®) Verification Services are critical for lenders looking to streamline their origination process and improve loan quality. is playing. However, the key to optimizing borrower verification workflows and ensuring compliance is partnering with the right provider who can help lenders improve loan quality and save hundreds of dollars per loan compared to traditional verification providers. That's it. Please join us! “Minimizing Risk with GSE Borrower Verification” April 24, 2:00 PM ET Use code TRUV100 to join for free even if you are not an MBA member. Register now.
“AFR Wholesale® is pleased to announce the renewal of our partnership with AIME for 2024, highlighting our commitment to the wholesale channel. As we continue to work together, we are pleased to announce the renewal of our partnership with AIME for 2024. We are committed to providing mortgage professionals and wholesale channels with the resources, comprehensive training, and strong support they need. Through this partnership, AFR will set new industry standards, advance best practices, and support our clients. and our partners, and we aim to be at the forefront of innovative initiatives aimed at increasing operational efficiency and improving the customer experience. This announcement is just the beginning, as AFR plans to announce several exciting partnerships and updates in the coming weeks. To join us, contact AFR at sales@afrwholesale.com or 1-800-375-6071.
The frequent breaches within our industry remind us of the precarious position that mortgage lenders and their customers' data is currently in. These repeated security incidents highlight an undeniable truth. That means robust cybersecurity defenses are not just an option; they are a necessary security measure. they are required. A breach can mean the difference between a thriving business and a catastrophic collapse. There are very real risks to mortgage companies right now. You're not just protecting data, you're protecting trust, livelihoods, and the very integrity of the financial system. This is a responsibility we must take seriously, and it's time to double down on cybersecurity. Richey May's Cyber Security team is here to help. Check out our latest post that details the often overlooked risks in the industry.
capital market
The role of the US Federal Reserve in interest rates cannot be ignored. (The current title of the STRATMOR blog is “Trust in the Fed: How did this happen?”) “Experts” have been predicting multiple rate cuts in 2024. Sure enough, the long-awaited Fed policy change has come true, but it's not the case. Investors were hopeful. The Fed's changes were thought to signal a reversal of the contractionary monetary policy that has been in place since March 2022, keeping interest rates at high levels.
But that's not the message, especially after three straight months of higher-than-expected inflation. “Recent statistics clearly do not give us much confidence and instead indicate that it will likely take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Fed Chairman Jay Powell said last year. “The recovery in supplies supported U.S. spending and employment growth, supporting strong economic growth.” More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also shows no further progress on returning to the 2% inflation target so far this year. ”
As always, the Fed is keeping an eye on the data as it comes out. However, the situation will remain high for a long time. At least the next rate cut is still expected to be a rate cut. Things could become difficult for lenders and borrowers if that moves to rate hikes, and if price pressures resurface and the so-called soft landing is called into question. And now the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since November. The yield was over 4.6 percent versus 4.25 percent last week or two, and 3.88 percent at the beginning of the year. This means the 10-year bond is close to a full point increase heading into his 2024.
As today's podcast interview alluded to, things are pretty quiet in terms of market-moving news. Weekly jobless claims were unchanged from last week's level, and some selling came after the Philadelphia Fed released a better-than-expected April survey yesterday. Investors have bought large amounts of U.S. Treasuries for the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, betting that the Fed will cut interest rates several times this year. But Fed speakers are slamming homebound rhetoric on interest rates, citing the U.S. economy's reluctance to cool (yesterday, several more Fed speakers said there is no urgency to cut rates at this point). (He reiterated that he did not feel any gender). Investors were forced to abandon bets on upside, giving way to a wave of selling..
In response, Freddie Mac's latest mortgage market research shows that mortgage rates have skyrocketed, with 30-year interest rates exceeding 7% for the first time this year. For the week ending April 18, 30-year mortgage rates rose 22 basis points from the previous week, and 15-year mortgage rates rose 23 basis points to 7.10% and 6.39%, respectively. These rates were 71 basis points higher and 63 basis points higher than this time last year.
Inflation is once again below 3%, but better-than-expected residential rental sector data in the first few months of the year is a big reason the Fed is holding off on cutting interest rates that Wall Street has been expecting. The markets with the greatest rent declines are those with the most construction. High inflation has persisted in the Northeast and Midwest, but inflation has eased rapidly in the West and South.
Existing home sales fell 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million units, reflecting a recent drop in purchase mortgage applications and increased supply and temporary housing in the first two months of 2024. The decline was widely expected given the solid growth recorded due to falling prices. Mortgage interest rate. Sales decreased by 3.7% from the previous year. The median sale price of existing homes rose 4.8% year-on-year to $393,500, marking the ninth consecutive month of year-on-year increases and marking a record high for March. The inventory of unsold existing homes increased by 4.7% from a month ago, equivalent to 3.2 months' supply at the current monthly sales pace.
There is no notable data on today's economic calendar, but The Fed's speakers include Chicago President Goldsby. For capital markets players, today is a Class D 48 hour. Agency MBS prices rose by 0.125 to 0.250, opening the day at 4.59 for 10-year bonds and 4.96 for 2-year bonds, after closing at 4.65% the previous day.
employment
“At Evergreen Home Loans, our mission is simple: to provide our clients with an affordable strategy to not only buy a home, but also get a competitive offer. Our unique approach helps families secure their future. At Evergreen Mortgage, our customized solutions remain committed to innovation and customer success as we navigate a volatile housing market. and long-term prosperity, fostering a supportive environment and ensuring that homeownership is a reality for first-time buyers and experienced investors alike. By providing guidance, we help our clients turn their dreams of homeownership into tangible assets that will benefit you for generations.We are expanding our team. We invite seasoned loan officers and branch managers to explore the career opportunities we offer. Join us to make a difference and shape the future of homeownership. See all job openings. To check, please visit Careers.
Synergy One Lending continues to re-emerge as one of the industry success stories in 2024. The addition of 12 new branches and the company's successful expansion into several new markets provided an even stronger foundation for profitable growth in preparation for further growth in the future. . A vision with a profit and loss structure built to increase market share, constant execution and adoption of cutting-edge technology, and three core values (Customer Delight, Employee Inspiration, and Pure Reputation) )-focused culture is a key indicator of the company's trajectory. . Contact Aaron Nemec (208) 794-7786 or Eric Kulbe (303) 717-0293. Please join us and leave your name.
Geneva Financial, which operates in 48 states, announced that Jesse Armell will join its executive team as chief compliance officer to drive quality control and compliance for the company's mortgage business.
Recently, our industry lost another veteran with the death of Alabama's John Johnson. John was CEO and co-founder of MortgageAmerica, Inc. from 1978 until 2012. However, John's mortgage career began in 1966 with Colonial Mortgage Company and then Molton-Allen & Williams. He served as president of the Alabama Mortgage Bankers Association from 1980 to 1981 and chaired the association's convention in 1982. John was awarded the designation of Certified Mortgage Banker in 1982. He has served on the Board of Directors of the American Mortgage Bankers Association since 1999. He was – in 2003, in 2001-2002 he was the Chairman of the Housing Board, and in 2006 he was the Chairman of the MERS Board. He will be sorely missed as these individuals have helped make our industry what it is today.
