South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid in the country's elections this week, a major setback for the party that led the country's liberation from white-minority rule.
The ANC, which has led the country since 1994, has begun closed-door talks with other parties to form a governing coalition unlike anything it has ever had before. But analysts say the ANC's defeat and the pressure it will face from potential allies also cast a shadow over the future of President Cyril Ramaphosa, who the ANC had hoped would lead the next government.
With nearly all the votes counted, the ANC had won about 40 percent of the seats, followed by the main opposition Democratic Alliance with 21 percent. Third place is the election's big success story: Former president Jacob Zuma's uMKhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which destroyed the ANC's main support base, is poised to form government in KwaZulu-Natal and could be crucial in whether the ANC forms the next government under Ramaphosa. The MK party won about 15 percent of the national vote and 45 percent of the vote in Zuma's home province of KwaZulu-Natal.
The MK group, which includes many ANC politicians including Zuma himself, has already said there will be no deal with the ruling party unless Ramaphosa is first removed from office, and analysts say he will face intense pressure to step down after leading the ANC to its worst ever election result.
“They've lost a majority, and they've lost a big one,” said Richard Calland, Africa director at the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership. “This is a very significant defeat.”
The ANC remains South Africa's largest political organisation and is in a position to lead coalition talks because it would be nearly impossible to form the next government without the party, Callard said. “The question is whether Ramaphosa will lead those negotiations or will he resign after a short time or be ousted.”
These doubts are compounded by the limited options available to President Ramaphosa and the ANC as they try to form a governing coalition.
Zuma vs. Ramaphosa: a bitter history
A joint ANC-MK alliance would give the two parties a clear majority in parliament. ANC support would also help MK crack the middle electoral district in KwaZulu-Natal, giving Mr Zuma's party a chance to form government at its first try, after it was only formed late last year.
But analysts say that's easier said than done.
The ANC's declining popularity is due to a deterioration of public infrastructure, social inequality and rising crime. South Africa has the highest unemployment rate in the world at 33 percent, with youth unemployment at 45 percent. Rolling power outages are straining the economy.
President Ramaphosa and other senior ANC leaders have also faced personal corruption scandals, and the president at one point faced a motion of no confidence over allegations of misconduct.
But the ANC's vote share has fallen 17 percentage points since it won 57% of the vote in the 2019 election, due in part to the rise of Zuma's MKs.
Zuma handpicked Ramaphosa to be his deputy at the time, but the two have been at odds ever since. Their grievances date back to 2018, when Zuma was forced to step down as leader and president of the ANC after being embroiled in multiple corruption scandals.
When Ramaphosa became party leader and president, he appointed a commission of inquiry to look into Zuma, alluding to years of corruption and waste in his presidency – a charge Zuma responded to by publicly slamming the president and the ANC countless times.
Last December, Zuma was suspended from the ANC for supporting the new opposition party, MK, while claiming to be a part of it. Analysts predicted at the time that Zuma was trying to use his loyal support base in KwaZulu-Natal to split the ANC vote against President Ramaphosa in this week's elections. Now Zuma has made good on that threat.
“As President Ramaphosa has previously said, this is about 'unfinished business' between the two,” said Sanusha Naidoo, an analyst at the Global Dialogue Institute. “Zuma feels he needs to be exonerated for being accused of corruption. He feels the system has been turned against him. MPs do not see the ANC under Ramaphosa as a trustworthy and legitimate organisation.”
Difficult coalition government
Despite the party's steep decline in fortunes, Ramaphosa was until recently the party's most popular figure — an internal ANC poll in March ranked him the most popular leader of any major party, even outranking the ANC itself — making it harder for the party to replace him, analysts say.
A former trade union leader, one-time protégé of Nelson Mandela and wealthy businessman, Ramaphosa is credited by supporters with his steady pragmatism and for polishing South Africa's image worldwide as a fighter for the underdogs of the Global South.
His presidency has been especially praised for his support for the Palestinians and for filing a historic genocide lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice over the Gaza war. This month, the court ordered Israel to halt its military attacks on Rafah in southern Gaza, a requirement under international law that Israel has ignored as it continues its attacks on Palestinian cities.
Analysts say a grand coalition with the DA instead of MK might be a more stable power alliance for both the ANC and South Africa. It would not be easy. Critics of the DA accuse it of leaning to the interests of the country's white minority, and the party has been harshly critical of the ANC and President Ramaphosa. Ahead of the election, the DA promised to “save South Africa from the ANC” and vowed never to govern in coalition with the ANC.
But now the government has signaled it is not closing its doors to any options, with analysts saying an ANC-DA merger is the country's best option right now, potentially uniting the nation and boosting investor confidence in Africa's most advanced economy.
“There are big differences between the two sides, but they are not insurmountable,” said Ebrahim Fakir, an analyst at the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy. “That makes the ANC more likely to remain stable and rebuild its hollowed-out government institutions, even if only in the short term.”
Fakir added that another option would be a national unity government in which ministerial posts would be awarded to any party that gets more than 10 per cent of the vote – the type of government led by Nelson Mandela when he first came to power in 1994.
Either way, there would be challenges, Fakir warned. “If the ANC joins forces with the DA or opts for a government of national unity, there are dangers on both sides because each party will try to undermine or defeat the other,” he said.
Meanwhile, the ANC must consider another factor in its leadership calculations, said Naidoo of the Global Dialogue Institute: whether removing Ramaphosa from power would really help the party recover.
“If Ramaphosa is forced to resign or feels he needs to resign, it doesn't solve the issue of stabilising the ANC, it doesn't solve the issue of whether the party can put country before itself,” Naidoo said. “We need that level of rationality and practical thinking in the party.”
“This is not just about what happens to Ramaphosa, it's about the country, the market and most importantly the people.”
