RIYADH – Washington's top diplomat will visit Saudi Arabia on Sunday as the deadline approaches for a landmark and, according to analysts, deal for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Riyadh comes nearly seven months after the outbreak of war in Gaza put a brake on activities that were intended as a signature foreign policy achievement for his boss, US President Joe Biden. It was done later.
It also comes as Americans prepare to vote in November on whether to give 81-year-old Biden a second term, with the election process continuing to normalize diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel. could undermine progress.
In September, before the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel sparked a war, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News that a deal could strengthen the security partnership between Washington and Riyadh. “It's getting closer every day,” he said.
But Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed, 38, also said the Palestinian issue was “very important” to Riyadh, adding: “We need to ease the lives of Palestinians.”
As fighting drags on and mediators struggle to reach a cease-fire, Saudi officials have repeatedly called for recognition of an independent Palestinian state.
Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington, Princess Reema bint Bandar Al Saud, told the World Economic Forum in January that normalization would be impossible without an “irreversible” path to statehood. .
It's not surprising that Saudi Arabia would link relations with Israel to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but “the cost of normalization, especially on the Palestinian front, is definitely rising,” said Saudi analyst Aziz Alghassian. he said.
“What I can say is that we need something more concrete than something theoretical,” he says.
“In other words, it is not just a promise, but a clear and more irreversible measure.”
The US State Department announced that Blinken will discuss “a path to an independent Palestinian state with guaranteed security for Israel” during talks in Riyadh on Monday and Tuesday.
– Progress is interrupted –
Saudi Arabia, home to Islam's holiest site, has never recognized Israel and did not participate in the 2020 Abraham Accords brokered by the United States. The agreement saw Gulf neighbors Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco establish formal relations with Israel.
Biden vowed in a 2019 debate to treat Prince Mohammed as a “pariah” over human rights issues.
But after Biden visited the Saudi city of Jeddah in 2022 and fist-bumped the crown prince, the Biden administration announced that the Saudi-Israel agreement, based on the Abraham Accords, was a foreign policy victory for his predecessor Donald Trump. This was actively promoted.
Saudi Arabia has signaled it wants more than the Gulf states are getting, negotiating hard for benefits such as U.S. security and support for a civilian nuclear program with the ability to enrich uranium.
In the months that followed, Israeli and American officials issued strong statements, but the Saudi side characteristically said little.
Elham Fakhro, of the Chatham House think tank, said there was no doubting their influence, strengthened by their status as recognized leaders of the Islamic world.
“Saudi Arabia recognizes how much the Biden administration wants a deal,” Fakhroh said.
“We also recognize that no other country has more influence in lobbying the Palestinian people than the Arab countries.”
Hamas's October 7 attack abruptly stalled its momentum, killing about 1,170 people, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli statistics.
According to the Ministry of Health in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, Israel's retaliatory military operation aimed at destroying Hamas has killed more than 34,000 people, mostly women and children.
Riyadh has consistently condemned Israeli military actions in Gaza, and as recently as this week denounced “unchecked heinous war crimes.”
– A difficult order –
Even without the Gaza war, concluding a Saudi-Israeli-US agreement would be extremely difficult.
“The United States has to accomplish something, but none of Saudi Arabia's conditions (or demands) are easy,” Fakhroh said.
“Defense deals must pass Congress, where approval is by no means certain.”
In the United States, election season rancor has made building bipartisan consensus even more difficult.
In any case, Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly made clear his opposition to a Palestinian state, saying last month that Israelis reject any attempt to “slam it down our throats.”
Given Saudi Arabia's position, that means an imminent breakthrough is unlikely.
Long-time observers of Saudi diplomacy stress that this is not surprising, despite the number of recent meetings and statements.
“Saudi Arabia has been clear from the beginning that dealing with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in a way that satisfies the Palestinians is a prerequisite for normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel,” said Saudi analyst Hesham al-Ghanam.
“Saudi Arabia is sincere on the condition that normalization leads to an end to Israel's occupation of Palestinian land.”
