As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in the 2024 presidential election, their contrasting approaches to technology could significantly change U.S. tech policy, especially if Trump wins.
The U.S. president is a key figure in guiding U.S. policy regarding technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductor chips. The past four years of the Biden administration have focused on competing with China by boosting domestic chip manufacturing and enforcing export controls, while also challenging U.S. technology companies on antitrust issues and forcing federal agencies to It has led by example in the safety development of AI by requiring guidelines for its use to be followed.
If Mr. Trump wins the election, the U.S. could reduce its focus on regulating technologies such as AI, accelerate trade restrictions with China, re-home critical supply chains, and protect national interests.
Regardless of who wins the 2024 election, it's imperative that the U.S. president guides the next era of digital technology policy — or Europe will lay the foundation for technology rules, Brookings Institution says. said Tom Wheeler, a visiting scholar and former board chairman. Federal Communications Commission (FCC). The European Union has already adopted the EU AI Act and is in the process of implementing the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act to govern digital platforms.
If these questions are not answered, we are very close to a situation where Europe ends up writing the rules. That would be a tragedy.
tom wheelerBrookings Institution Visiting Scholar
Wheeler said U.S. leadership has largely ignored the changes that digital technology has brought to commerce and culture, but he believes that needs to change under the next administration.
“Are we going to keep arguing about privacy forever? Are we going to rely on antitrust laws that were written in a whole different era? How do we deal with the issues of trust and truth? For 25 years we've looked the other way,” Wheeler said. “If we can't answer these questions, we're getting pretty close to a situation where Europe ends up writing the rules, and that would be a tragedy.”
Biden and Trump talk climate, China, AI
Climate technology policy will be the biggest difference between the Biden and Trump administrations.
Biden signed the Inflation Control Act, which gives companies clean energy incentives. In contrast, the previous Trump administration denied climate change and rolled back environmental protections to boost the natural gas, oil, and coal industries.
Additionally, while the Biden administration has focused primarily on clean energy technologies like solar and wind, a second Trump administration may shift its emphasis to nuclear power, said Arthur Herman, senior fellow and director of the Quantum Alliance Initiative at the Hudson Institute, who also served on the National Security Council under the former Trump administration.
In fact, Herman said nuclear power is likely to become a core part of the U.S. approach to developing more carbon-free energy under the Trump administration.
“Under Trump, nuclear power will rise to the forefront of energy and technology policy,” he said.
Herman said China will also be a big focus for President Trump's second term. That will have an impact on US tech policy, as has already been demonstrated through Trump and Biden's approach to China. During the Trump administration, tariffs were imposed on Chinese products such as aluminum, steel and solar panels. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has introduced restrictions on exports of advanced AI technology to China.
“The Trump administration will look at China's role with some skepticism,” Herman said. “How do these technologies support or undermine our national interests, particularly with respect to China's role as a strategic adversary and as a technological and economic competitor?”
Herrmann said climate change policy and China are closely tied to the Trump administration. He cited China as an example of why Trump pulled out of the Paris climate accord on carbon emissions, and Herman said Trump thought it would hurt U.S. interests and favor China.
“From the perspective of President Trump and the Republican Party, environmental policies, especially on the part of the Biden administration, will be seen as having an economic and strategic impact on China,” he said.
AI has also taken center stage for Biden and Congress in the past year, but Wheeler said AI regulation is likely to be more affected by who controls the House and Senate after the November elections. The Biden administration has already demonstrated the White House's limitations in managing AI use.
“Everybody thinks the presidency is this huge, powerful position,” Wheeler said. “Obviously, there are limitations to what can be defined in a situation like this, and there will need to be legislation.”
Return of domestic manufacturing and collaboration with big tech
The CHIPS/Science Act, passed under the Biden administration, aims to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Several companies have already received millions of dollars from the CHIPS Act to build semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the United States.
Herman said the reshoring of U.S. industry could continue under the second Trump administration, including efforts to refocus tariffs as a way to force international competitors to negotiate better terms for U.S. products and services. He said that it was a highly effective initiative.
But Herman believes that under a Trump administration, government funding for these efforts will be reduced, with a focus on “constructive tax policy” to fund technology research and development where private companies see opportunity. He expects the administration will encourage private industry to tackle technological challenges by “creating an environment that supports investment capital in these areas.”
Herman said there will also likely be differences between how Biden and Trump approach big tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta. Both administrations have targeted the companies over antitrust concerns, while the Biden administration has sought to partner with them on understanding technologies like AI.
Herman said that under the second Trump administration, there will be a backlash against big tech companies in terms of their ability to influence regulation.
“Big tech companies will be distanced and viewed with suspicion,” he said.
Brookings' Wheeler said it's ultimately difficult to predict how a second Trump administration will approach specific technology policies, especially given the administration's history of making policy decisions personal. Wheeler cited Trump's aggravating attitudes toward media outlets such as NBC that left him wondering whether the FCC should revoke the licenses of broadcast networks. Wheeler also noted that Trump opposed the AT&T-Time Warner merger because of his dislike for CNN.
“This is a very volatile situation,” Wheeler said. “I think he can tell the banks that he's going to campaign against the federal government…and at the same time, how can he use that power to his own needs? And what does that mean?” No one knows if it will.”
For additional information on President Trump and President Biden's approaches to technology policy, check out TechTarget Editorial's guide to candidates' stances on technology.
Makenzie Holland is a senior news writer covering big tech and federal regulation. Prior to joining TechTarget Editorial, she was a general interest reporter. Wilmington Star-News As a crime and education reporter Wabash Plain Dealer.
