Hardline conservatives openly vowed over the weekend to withdraw from the administration if Netanyahu agreed to the deal, which President Biden promoted on Friday as an “Israeli proposal.”
Religious parties have warned they will withdraw their support for the coalition government over a court ruling expected within days that could revoke long-held exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox young men.
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Defense Minister Yoav Galant, a member of Netanyahu's Likud party, called on the prime minister to publicly commit to avoiding indefinite Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip.
The most immediate challenge comes from opposition leader Benny Gantz, one of the three voting members of the war cabinet along with Netanyahu and Gallant. Gantz has ordered Netanyahu to announce a long-term strategy for Gaza by Saturday or he will step down from the war cabinet and pull his party out of the government.
The resignation of Netanyahu's main rival, Gantz, is unlikely to bring down the government, and a motion of no confidence introduced in the Israeli parliament by his National Unity Party last week is unlikely to pass, but political analysts are questioning how long Netanyahu can hold on to power.
“Things started to snowball,” said Gayle Tarshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University. “Gantz's move doesn't directly mean the end of the coalition, but it does start to unravel.”
Netanyahu's predicament became even more pronounced on Friday after Biden publicly announced a six-week cessation of fighting and exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners recently proposed by Israel's war cabinet, intended to pave the way for an eventual end to the conflict. In a phone call with the emir of Qatar on Monday, Biden confirmed Israel's readiness to move forward on the terms offered to Hamas, according to a White House statement.
But Netanyahu has sought to distance himself from the proposal, and his far-right partners have vowed to try to destroy his coalition government if a deal is reached.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday “if the government accepts this surrender offer, we will not join it and will work to replace the dysfunctional leadership with new leadership.” National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said he was ready to “dismantle the government.”
According to people close to Netanyahu, he wants to delay the breakdown as long as possible, fearing that public anger over his failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attacks and free more hostages could lead to a crushing election defeat. Some believe he wants to hold out until the November U.S. election in the hope that former President Donald Trump will replace Biden in the White House.
But the prime minister is pleased with the rapid developments in the political situation and is prepared to make the best of the situation, according to an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
The official said he has no plans to step down and, if elections are held, will campaign on the same right-wing themes that made him Israel's longest-serving leader: portraying Gantz, Gallant and other rivals as weak in a war with Hamas and positioning himself as a bulwark against a Palestinian state.
“He may not be great at military strategy, but he's great at political maneuvering,” the official said. “You can't take him for granted.”
Indeed, Netanyahu's prospects for surviving the coalition may have brightened in recent weeks. After trailing in opinion polls for months, he narrowly led Gantz in a recent survey of Israelis' preferences for prime minister, but neither politician has received more than 36 percent support, and Netanyahu remains widely unpopular.
U.S. officials are highly skeptical that Gantz's ultimatum will be enough to persuade the prime minister to give in to his demands, citing the improving poll numbers.
In any case, government officials are taking Gantz's threat to quit the war cabinet seriously and expect it could make cabinet discord even more intractable. In one scenario, Netanyahu could govern with a coalition of ultra-conservative ministers, shifting decision-making even further to the right.
U.S. officials said they witnessed a constant stream of backstabbing and feuding between Netanyahu and his political opponents during multiple visits to Tel Aviv. Secretary of State Antony Blinken typically prefers to meet discreetly behind closed doors with Israeli politicians to encourage more frank discussions.
When rival factions are in the same room, they often are careful with their comments, said two U.S. officials, noting that ministers often leak information to Israeli media seeking to portray political opponents in a negative light, and they spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive political environment.
Yaacob Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu, disputed that U.S. explanation. He said the war cabinet was close to agreement on key issues, including Israel's recent attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Gantz's ultimatum would have no impact on the war effort, he said.
“They will appoint a new war cabinet,” Amidorah said. “What he is doing is not about war, it is about politics.”
But Israeli analysts say Gantz's move could encourage rivals within Netanyahu's own party to challenge his hold on power.
The prime minister's base support has shrunk, with 17 percent of Likud supporters prepared to abstain from voting if Mr Netanyahu led the party in new elections, according to a Hebrew University poll released this month.
Talsir said a right-wing candidate other than Netanyahu would be more appealing to most Israelis than a centre-right or centre-left figure such as Gantz or opposition leader Yair Lapid.
“It won't be a fight between Netanyahu and Gantz,” she said. “It will be a fight between someone else who represents the right.”
Likud activists are watching closely for signs that Mr. Gallant is preparing for a more direct confrontation with the prime minister. Mr. Gallant's office declined to comment.
“The key to defeating Bibi lies within Likud,” an Israeli official said, using Netanyahu's nickname, “and the key for Likud is Gallant.”
