Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure from his far-right coalition partners to reject a hostage release and ceasefire offer unveiled on Friday by President Joe Biden and is facing threats to quit the government.
Since Biden announced the scope of the initial six-week ceasefire on Friday, Netanyahu has issued several statements expressing modest support for the proposal but saying Israel will not end the war until Hamas is defeated in Gaza.
“The proposal presented by Biden is incomplete,” Netanyahu told Knesset members at a closed-door meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee amid growing pressure from the far-right, according to Israel's Channel 12, adding: “The war will be stopped to bring back the hostages, and then there will be talks. There are other details that the US president has not shown the people.”
According to documents released by the White House, the proposal has three phases: The first phase, expected to last six weeks, would see the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel in exchange for the release of women, elderly and injured hostages, Israeli forces would cease firing and withdraw from downtown Gaza, and Gaza residents would be allowed to return to northern Gaza.
During this period, the two sides will negotiate the specifics of the second phase, which would involve the release of other hostage fighters in exchange for a long-term ceasefire. Of the roughly 120 hostages remaining in Gaza, Israel says it has confirmed 37 dead, but officials say the death toll could be higher. The third phase would involve the return of bodies held by both sides and the rebuilding of Gaza.
The proposal was presented and approved by Israel's small war cabinet. Israeli public broadcaster Kan said on Sunday that Netanyahu had rejected a request from the security cabinet to reveal all the details of the proposed deal for fear they would be leaked to the media.
“Hamas confirms that it is ready to respond in a positive and constructive manner to any proposals based on a permanent ceasefire and complete withdrawal.” [of Israeli forces] Reconstruction from the Gaza Strip [of Gaza]”The implementation of a genuine prisoner exchange deal is necessary for the return of displaced people to their places of origin, provided that the occupying forces clearly express their commitment to such a deal,” Hamas said in a statement on Friday.
Ben Gvir and Smotrich hint at resignation
Anticipating a reaction from its far-right partners, Netanyahu's office stressed on Friday that the new proposal would allow Israel to achieve its war objectives, saying in a statement: “The prime minister authorized negotiators to present an outline for achieving this task and insisted that the war will not end until all our objectives are achieved, including the return of the hostages and the elimination of Hamas' military and governing capabilities.”
Shortly after Biden's announcement, several Cabinet members voiced their opposition to the plan.
“I have spoken to the prime minister and made it clear that I will not be part of a government that agrees to the outline that has been presented to us – to end the war without destroying Hamas and releasing all the hostages,” hardline Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Friday.
Kan reported that Smotrich met on Sunday with rabbis who advise the Religious Zionist Party to discuss whether he would stay in government if the proposed deal moves forward.
Late Monday, Smotrich accused the war cabinet of “dangerously managing” the situation. Addressing members of the right-wing Guvra Forum, Smotrich said, “If the government decides to adopt this proposal and surrender, we will not join it and will act to replace the dysfunctional leadership with new leadership.” Smotrich added, “I told the prime minister that, together with the families and the majority of the Israeli people, we will stand with you all the way to victory, but if you choose surrender and defeat, we will stand against you with all our might.”
Ben Gvir, leader of the nationalist faction Jewish Power, also warned he would step down if the proposal was accepted, saying: “If the prime minister goes ahead with a reckless deal under the conditions announced today, which means giving up on ending the war and eliminating Hamas, Jewish Power will dissolve the government.”
After meeting with the Israeli prime minister on Monday, Ben Gvir accused Netanyahu of “whitewashing” details of the latest proposal. “I asked the prime minister if I could see the draft agreement, and he agreed and asked me to come to his office so I could see it for myself,” Ben Gvir told reporters, adding that Netanyahu's aides had told him “there is no draft to see.”
Will Netanyahu's government collapse?
Prime Minister Netanyahu may indeed be forced to choose between making a hostage deal or staying in power.
It's unclear how realistic the far-right's threats to quit the government are: Netanyahu's coalition is the most right-wing in Israeli political history, and parties would have a hard time explaining to voters why they wanted to topple it if doing so would trigger new elections.
Opinion polls released last Friday showed that despite his growing strength, Netanyahu would lose his 64-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament if two far-right parties, which together have 13 seats, quit the government.
Religious Zionism and Jewish Power ran on the same ticket in the last election, and it's unclear whether they will reach a similar agreement next time. The latest opinion polls had projected Smotrich's Religious Zionism to win the four seats required to enter the Knesset, but earlier polls had it scoring lower.
Political safety net
If Netanyahu goes ahead with the deal, he could face opposition not only from the far right but also from members of his own Likud party.
“There are conditions we cannot accept: to end the war while Hamas is a functioning military and political entity. It is not possible,” Diaspora Affairs Minister Amihai Chikli said on Sunday. He added: “This is not a deal, it's a joke. Nazi Germany and Japan surrendered on their knees. Hamas should do the same.”
Opposition leader Yair Lapid has been calling for new elections since October 7, accusing Netanyahu's government of enabling the attacks on Hamas with a series of military, intelligence and diplomatic failures. Still, Lapid has repeatedly stressed that his Yesh Atid party would provide Netanyahu with a safety net if necessary to secure a hostage deal, and would back him if far-right forces tried to dissolve the Knesset in an attempt to block the deal.
Meanwhile, Benny Gantz, a former Israel Defense Forces commander and opposition leader who joined the emergency war government in October, recently set a June 8 deadline for Netanyahu to present a plan for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip, threatening to step down from power if he failed to do so.