Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for months refused to give a deadline for ending the war with Hamas in Gaza, a stance critics saw as a political tactic, but President Biden's outline of a ceasefire proposal has put him in a bind.
Conservative Prime Minister Netanyahu has long juggled competing personal, political and national interests, and now he appears to be facing a stark choice between keeping his hawkish government afloat and returning hostages held in Gaza, while also steering Israel and himself on a new path away from growing international isolation.
The prime minister's critics describe him as indecisive and say there are two Netanyahu figures: one who functions pragmatically with a small war cabinet of centrist rivals that gives it public legitimacy, and one who opposes any concessions to Hamas and is effectively held hostage by far-right members of the ruling coalition who ensure his political survival.
Biden on Friday outlined the broad terms Israel has reportedly offered to U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators who have been pushing for an agreement to stop fighting in Gaza and release hostages. Israeli officials confirmed that the terms were in line with a ceasefire proposal that was approved by Israel's war cabinet but has not yet been presented to the Israeli public.
Analysts say this is a moment of truth for Prime Minister Bibi, as she is known.
Biden “pulled Netanyahu out of his closet of equivocation and presented Netanyahu's proposal himself,” the prime minister's biographer and longtime critic Ben Kaspit wrote in the Hebrew-language daily Maariv on Sunday. “And he asked a simple question: Will Bibi support Netanyahu's proposal? Yes or no. No nonsense, no theory.”
The leaders of the two far-right parties that make up the coalition, Israel's Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Bengvir, have vowed to topple Netanyahu's government before Hamas is completely destroyed if the prime minister goes along with Biden's proposed deal. Some hard-line members of Netanyahu's own Likud party have said they would join them.
Meanwhile, former army commanders Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who were part of the emergency government throughout the war, have warned that they will withdraw the support of their centrist National Unity Party by June 8 if Netanyahu does not provide a clear path forward, and opposition parties have begun organizing to try to topple the government.
The proposed ceasefire is divided into three phases: the hostage crisis would be freed in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, the temporary ceasefire would be transformed into a permanent cessation of hostilities, and an internationally-backed effort to rebuild Gaza would begin.
More than 100 hostages were released under a more limited agreement last November. An estimated 125 people remain being held in Gaza by Hamas and other militant groups, while dozens are believed to have been killed.
Israelis were left to interpret two statements issued by Prime Minister Netanyahu's office on the Sabbath after Biden's speech, which (unusually) neither strongly endorsed the proposal nor denied that Israel had presented it to the mediators. Conditional and open to interpretation, the statements seemed designed to leave Netanyahu's options open.
The first statement said Prime Minister Netanyahu had authorized Israel's negotiating team to submit proposals that would bring about the hostage release and “allow Israel to continue the war until all objectives are achieved, including the destruction of Hamas' military and governing capabilities.”
The second statement reiterated the conditions for ending the war, adding that “the idea that Israel would agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are met is inconceivable.”
Notable, however, was the absence of Netanyahu's oft-stated goal of “total victory” against Hamas in the Gaza Strip — a slogan that Biden dismissed Friday as a vague goal that would mean indefinite war.
Some of Netanyahu's most ardent supporters wear blue baseball caps emblazoned with a “Total Victory” logo, but statements from the prime minister's office over the weekend appeared tailored to align with Israel's military and defense authorities and Biden's stated war aims.
Defense Minister Yoav Galant reiterated on Sunday that “we will not accept Hamas rule in any process to end this war.” He said Israel would “isolate” the Gaza Strip, remove Hamas operatives and “introduce forces that can form an alternative government,” without elaborating on who those forces might be.
Netanyahu's opponents accuse him of prolonging the war to postpone elections and delay public accountability for failures of Israeli intelligence and policy that led to the devastating Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, which prompted an Israeli military strike on Gaza and subsequent widespread death and destruction.
But much is now at stake for Netanyahu, who finds himself at a political and strategic crossroads.
Relations between Netanyahu and Biden have become increasingly tense since he formed Israel's most right-wing, religiously conservative government 17 months ago, and the four top lawmakers have formally invited him to address a joint session of parliament on Friday but have not set a date.
Given the deep political divisions in the U.S. over Israel's conduct of the Gaza war, the bipartisan unity masked difficult behind-the-scenes discussions over the prime minister's acceptance.
Biden described the ceasefire agreement as not only a way to stop the bloodshed in Gaza, but also to further integrate Israel into the region and pave the way for grander Middle East negotiations, including a “potential historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.” Israel, Biden said, “can be part of a regional security network to counter the Iranian threat.”
Biden acknowledged that some in Netanyahu's coalition don't agree with the proposal and want to continue fighting and occupying Gaza for years. He urged Israeli leaders to “support this deal no matter what pressure is placed on them.”
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said Sunday he fully supports Netanyahu and his government in reaching a deal to bring the hostages home. While the president's role is largely ceremonial and he has no executive powers that would help Netanyahu if his government falls, his statements are meant to be a unifying voice that reflects the national consensus.
After Netanyahu's office released a statement on the ceasefire proposal, John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, sought to dispel any ambiguity about its origins. “This is an Israeli proposal,” Kirby told ABC News on Sunday. “We are confident that if Hamas, as they have been informed, agrees to the Israeli proposal, Israel would also say yes.”
Still, past experience has some Israeli analysts skeptical that Netanyahu will be willing to abandon his far-right coalition partners. That would require a “new Netanyahu,” said Reuven Hazan, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“Whenever there is a choice between serving his country, serving the extremist fanatics or serving his own party, he has always sided with the extremist fanatics,” Hazan said, adding that Netanyahu has also learned to say “yes, but” to the United States and “wait for Hamas to say 'no' and hold off as long as possible.”
Hamas, meanwhile, said in a statement on Friday that it viewed Biden's speech “positively” and was ready to respond in a “constructive manner” to any proposals based on a permanent ceasefire and other conditions he outlined.
Hazan said that given the US political schedule, Netanyahu would only need to engage in “survival politics” until Labor Day at the end of the summer, after which his administration would turn its attention to the presidential election in November.
“I wonder if Netanyahu is ready to turn around 180 degrees and do what's best for the country,” Hazan said. “Right now, everyone is freaking out about this. Don't get your hopes up,” he warned. “President Biden's speech doesn't mean we have a new Prime Minister Netanyahu.”
Zoran Kanno Youngs Contributed Report Rehoboth Beach, Delaware
