Johannesburg, South Africa – Former President Jacob Zuma has emerged as the biggest winner in South Africa's general election, with his new breakaway party, Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK), set to make big gains at the expense of the country's ruling African National Congress.
With more than two-thirds of the votes counted on Friday night, MK appeared on the verge of taking power in KwaZulu-Natal, where it was comfortably ahead in a province the ANC had never lost since the first post-apartheid elections in 1994.
Nationally, as results slowly trickle in, MK placed third with about 12 percent of the vote, behind the ANC with about 42 percent and the main opposition Democratic Alliance (23 percent). The results tallied so far clearly show that MK has won over many of the party's traditional supporters in ANC strongholds.
As well as KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, where the DA was expected to return to power with clear majorities, the ANC has also suffered a major blow in Gauteng, where it now sits well short of a majority.
These trends have only intensified over the past two days, and if they continue, the ANC will need to appeal to some opposition parties to back a national coalition for the first time in 30 years if it is to stay in power under President Cyril Ramaphosa. It will need to do the same if it is to stay in power in provinces such as Gauteng.
These results signal “the end of ANC dominance”, said analyst Sizwe Mpofu Walsh.
“This is a good thing. There is hope as much as fear. People are anxious and worried about what's going to happen but this will open up new avenues for change, new avenues for accountability,” he said. Mpofu-Walsh said the ANC's electoral defeat was the result of a combination of arrogance and denial of failure.
Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said the ANC joined other liberation movements that were punished for failing to deliver on their liberation promises. “Swapo in Namibia, ZANU PF in Zimbabwe and the ANC in South Africa are in exactly the same situation,” he said, referring to the parties that led the independence movements in Namibia and Zimbabwe respectively.
Imran Bukkus, an academic and researcher at the Auwal Institute for Social and Economic Research, said the election results indicated the collapse of the ANC. “This is in line with what has happened in liberation movements across Africa, we have examples in Zambia and Kenya,” he said.
Bukusa said the ANC's failures combined with economic inequality led to the election outcome.
According to the World Bank, 55% of South Africa's population lives in poverty. Thirty years of ANC rule have been marked by rising unemployment, which now stands at 33%. Worsening living conditions due to systemic corruption and government inefficiency are also problems facing South Africans.
Populist politics
Early election forecasts suggest that the ANC has suffered a major loss of support, while other opposition parties have failed to capitalise.
As the election results were finalized, the DA made a small gain. Party leader John Steenhausen told reporters on Friday he was pleased with the party's growth. “Growth is growth,” he said when asked about the party's slight increase in support. The DA won 21 percent of the vote and seats in the 2019 election.
Meanwhile, it appears that the ANC is not the only party losing support to MK: the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters are also losing support.
The party has garnered support across Zuma's home province of KwaZulu-Natal, attracting voters in rural and urban areas as well as in Gauteng and Mpumalanga.
Zuma, a leading anti-apartheid leader who was removed from office in 2018 amid a swirl of corruption allegations, is popular with many South Africans and has relied on populist policies to win votes.
During the election campaign, Zuma blamed South Africa's woes on “white monopoly capital” and described his successor, Ramaphosa, as an “agent of capital.” He also criticized the ANC for its failures, failing to acknowledge that he himself had been party leader for 10 years and deputy president for several more. Zuma made bold promises to end unemployment and poverty.
He denies any wrongdoing and describes himself as a victim of justice. The former president has a previous contempt of court contempt conviction that resulted in him being jailed in July 2021.
Swana said Zuma's scandals had not shaken support: “He was able to portray himself as a victim, persecuted by everyone,” he said.
ANC national chairperson Gwede Manashe admitted he was surprised by the MK party's performance in KwaZulu-Natal and acknowledged the ANC had performed poorly in the polls this year.
“MK is doing well in KZN, it's a bit of a surprise,” he said.
But Mantashe said Zuma's support was driven by ethnic nationalism, arguing he garnered support from the province's Zulu population, with whom he shares a common tribal identity.
But Swana said his support for Zuma went beyond identity politics.
“Zuma is loved by the people of KwaZulu-Natal,” he said, citing his role in negotiating an end to post-apartheid violence among the province's majority Zulu ethnic group.
He noted that Zuma's joining the MK party had effectively split the ANC, with many other party leaders and supporters also moving to the former president's new political stronghold.
This internal division has caused great damage to the ANC, he said.
Zuma's use of populist policies and rhetoric, and the success of that strategy, is in line with a global trend of support for populist leaders, Buccus said, citing former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte as examples.
“With the current failure of the ANC government, people are looking for alternatives,” he said. “We've seen similar examples all over the world.”
Who will form the next government?
The Electoral Commission is due to announce the final results on Sunday, but the ANC has already begun informal talks with potential coalition partners.
The ANC's Mantashe said the party had not expected such an outcome, saying “coalition is an outcome, not a prediction of an outcome”.
However, MK has ruled out a coalition with the ANC.
Other opposition parties have been tight-lipped about whether they will consider talks with the ANC, saying they will wait until the final results are announced. By law, the president must be elected within 14 days of the announcement of the results by the Electoral Commission.
Mpofu-Walsh said the political situation in South Africa was expected to be “tumultuous and volatile”.
But he said the full extent of the ANC's decline in support would only become clear over time.
