With a crucial part of the offseason behind us, attention now shifts to what could actually happen in the upcoming NFL season. A new NFL head coaching roster will soon be in place, but there has been a checkered history of first-year head coaches in recent years.
The idea of a coach being fired after one season is not as uncommon as it once was, with seven coaches having been given the dreaded “one-year” label since the 2018 season. Carolina's Frank Reich was the last to do so, losing his job after 11 games in 2023.
Here’s a look at the new head coaching staff and what could trip them up and land them in the saddest league in the NFL.
(It's unlikely any of these people will get fired, so let's laugh about this).
Commanders fans may not like the idea, but this is the shaky situation Quinn faces. As I said at the beginning, it's unlikely that any of these head coaches will be fired during or immediately after their first year, but there are some things that work against Quinn. Mainly, Quinn wasn't the first choice for the new ownership group that recently acquired the Commanders. It was very clear that the Commanders were committed to Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson before he decided to stay in Detroit. Quinn might be okay in the long run, but a rookie quarterback on a weak team with a shaky offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) is not a very stable position to be in. There is a lot of room to improve from the Commanders' 4-13 record last season, so Quinn may not need to jump too high to impress people.
The scenario that would get Morris fired is pretty straightforward: Kirk Cousins underperforms this season and the Falcons finish in the top five of next year's draft. While unlikely, Morris takes on the job with high expectations, especially after the Falcons spent the eighth overall pick on quarterback Michael Pennis Jr., who isn't expected to play this year. The Falcons have gone 7-10 over the past three seasons, and the addition of Cousins is expected to help them return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 season. That puts a lot of pressure on the new head coach, especially with owner Arthur Blank reaching the end of his patience with the team's poor performance.
Mayo is probably one of the players least at risk of going after one year. The only way that happens is if the Patriots have a similar record to what the Panthers had last season. Mayo could be in for a long hiatus, especially if Drake Maye is the player many expect him to be.
Speaking of the Panthers! Given the quarterback and head coach turnover and turmoil during the David Tepper era, nothing is off the table here. But the Panthers have to choose stability at some point, right? Even if it's just for the sake of stability. They have Bryce Young under contract for at least the 2024 season, so Canales should be comfortable beyond this season, even if it's a fiasco. Tepper can't afford to hire another head coach in 2025. Well, maybe he could, but you know what.
It would be surprising to see Callahan retire after just one season, given how talented the Titans have been this offseason. The Titans aren't a bad team, and they've tried to give Will Revis a chance to succeed this offseason. Callahan is in the same situation as Mayo, and unless something unexpected happens during the season, he won't lose his job.
Pierce is in a slightly different position, having finally taken over as head coach full-time last season due to the roster expansion. If the Raiders falter (likely given their quarterback depth) and take a few steps back from last year, he could be in real danger here because of his familiarity with the program. While this is his first time in full command, he's not new to the Raiders.
The Seahawks would have waited forever for McDonald, and he has no fear of being fired this season.
The only way Harbaugh loses his job this season is if he scares everyone off with his steak and milk habit. He'll have an incredibly long grace period to get the job done, which makes sense given his excellent track record as a head coach.
