AAA's Northern Virginia travel forecast for Memorial Day weekend indicates travel numbers could approach the record set in 2005.
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VIRGINIA — If you're planning on heading out of Northern Virginia over the three-day Memorial Day weekend, knowing when to avoid the busiest times on major routes could ensure you have a stress-free vacation — or one that you'll never let your kids do: Forget.
Approximately 43.8 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 23 and Monday, May 27 to celebrate Memorial Day 2024. AAA said in its annual Memorial Day travel forecast that this is a 4 percent increase over last year. This year's travel could approach the record set in 2005, when 44 million people took Memorial Day trips.
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In Virginia, AAA expects 1.2 million people to travel 50 miles or more, which will exceed the 1.15 million holiday weekend travelers in 2023. The previous record for a Memorial Day weekend was 1.24 million in 2005.
The majority of Virginia travelers (estimated at 1.06 million) travel by car, which will increase to 1.02 million by 2023. A record 102,385 people are expected to fly in Virginia, and 34,988 people will take buses, trains and other forms of transportation.
Memorial Day, the unofficial start of summer, has always been a big holiday for road trips. Approximately 38.4 million travelers are expected to leave by car nationwide, the highest number for the holiday since AAA began tracking Memorial Day travel in 2000.
Airports are also expected to be busier than last year, with about 3.51 million people nationwide flying to Memorial Day destinations, an increase of 4.8% from last year and 9% more than in 2019 before the pandemic. It has become. Crowds could rival post-9/11 recovery According to AAA, 3.64 million people flew in 2005.
“We've never seen such an increase in Memorial Day weekend travel in nearly two decades,” Paula Twidale, senior vice president at AAA Travel, said in a news release. “We expect an additional 1 million travelers this weekend compared to 2019. Not only does this mean we're exceeding pre-pandemic levels, it also means we're well on our way to a very busy summer travel season.”
The number of people taking road trips this year is expected to be 4 percent higher than last year and 1.9 percent higher than in 2019, before the pandemic. If you're looking for fun things to do in and around Northern Virginia, here are some perennial favorites.
Gasoline prices should be about the same as last year, when the national average for regular gasoline was about $3.57 per gallon. On Wednesday, regular gasoline was selling for $3.46 a gallon in Virginia. The average gas price in Northern Virginia is $3.58.
AAA warned that wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could disrupt oil markets, with pump prices always rising as the summer driving season begins.
Travel times to avoid
INRIX, AAA's transportation data partner, says drivers departing on Thursday and Friday should leave early to avoid peak commute times. Travelers returning from vacation on Sunday and Monday should avoid the peak travel hours in the afternoon.
“Travel times are expected to be 90% longer than normal,” INRIX transportation analyst Bob Picheux said in a news release. He advised road trippers to stay up to date with transit apps, 511 services and local news stations to avoid spending more time in traffic than necessary.
Here are the best and worst times to travel by car (all local times):
Thursday, May 23rd
- Worst time: Noon to 6 p.m.
- Best time: before 11am, after 7pm
Friday, May 24th
- Worst time of day: noon to 7pm
- Best time: before 11am, after 8pm
Saturday, May 25th
- Worst time: 2pm to 5pm
- Best time: before 1pm, after 6pm
Sunday, May 26th
- Worst time: 3pm to 7pm
- Best time: before 1pm
Monday, May 27th
- Worst time: 3pm to 7pm
- Best time: After 7pm
Peak congestion period
The peak congestion times, estimated travel times, and increases in traffic due to holidays for routes in the metropolitan area with high traffic volumes are as follows.
- Washington, DC: Washington to Baltimore via Baltimore/Washington Parkway N. Friday 2:15 p.m. 1 hour and 25 minutes, 72 percent longer than usual.
- Atlanta: Atlanta to Savannah via I-16E, 4:45 p.m. Saturday. 5 hours, 14 minutes, 54 percent longer than normal.
- Boston: Manchester to Boston via I-93S. Sunday 8:45am. 1 hour and 48 minutes, 50% longer than usual.
- Chicago: Milwaukee to Chicago via I-94E. Sunday 4:30 p.m. 2 hours and 25 minutes, 27% longer than usual.
- Denver: Fort Collins to Denver via I-25S at 4:15 p.m. Sunday, 1 hour and 24 minutes, 56 percent longer than normal.
- Detroit: Detroit to Kalamazoo via I-94E. Sunday 8:45 p.m. 2 hours and 48 minutes, 40% longer than usual.
- Houston: Galveston to Houston via I-45N. Sunday at 5pm. 1 hour and 11 minutes, 73% longer than usual.
- Los Angeles: LA to Bakersfield via I-5N at 6:15pm Thursday, 2 hours 45 minutes, 84% longer than normal.
- Minneapolis: Eau Claire, Wisconsin to Minneapolis via Interstate 94W. Monday 8:45am. 1 hour and 45 minutes, 38% longer than usual.
- New York: New York City to Albany via I-87N, 11:45 a.m. Thursday. 2 hours and 37 minutes, 64% longer than usual.
- Philadelphia: Philadelphia to Baltimore/Washington DC via I-95. 7:30 a.m. Friday, 43 percent longer than normal.
- Portland: Hood River to Portland via Interstate 84W. Monday 6:30pm. 1 hour and 20 minutes, 42% longer than usual.
- San Diego: San Diego to Palm Springs via I-5N. Monday 6:30pm. 1 hour and 20 minutes, 34% longer than usual.
- San Francisco: San Francisco to Napa via I-80E, 11 a.m. Friday. 3 hours, 4 minutes, 56% longer than normal.
- Seattle: Ellensburg to Seattle via Interstate 90E. Sunday 4:30 p.m. 2 hours 34 minutes, 58% longer than usual.
- Tampa: From Gainesville to Tampa via I-75S. Sunday 9am. 3 hours and 47 minutes, 88% longer than usual.
Related: Summer 2024 safety guide: Sharks, snakes, sand holes, storms and more
Rebound of other modes of transportation
Most people will drive or fly to their Memorial Day destinations, but about 1.9 million people will take trains, buses or cruises, an increase of 5.6% from last year, according to AAA.
“This category was hit the hardest during the pandemic, with fewer people using public transport or not taking cruises at all,” Tweedale said. “Five years later, we're back to 2019 numbers. Demand for travel is surging, and long holiday weekends are the perfect opportunity to take a vacation.”
