The National League West might be the most interesting division to play this season. Not only does it have the best player in baseball in Shohei Ohtani, it also boasts perhaps the best team in the sport (in theory). And with more than $1 billion in guaranteed contracts spent on free agents this winter, the biggest target is on the backs of the Dodgers, whose 2023 season ended abruptly in New York.
But the National League West isn't just a Dodgers show. The D-backs, who eliminated the division's powerhouse in the postseason last year, are hoping to live up to the high expectations and prove that their World Series appearance was no fluke. As for the Padres and Giants, they seem to be aiming for a similar finish in the division after making some moves in the offseason, and while neither team is a bad team, they're still playoff contenders. do not have. And then there are the Rocky Mountains.
I covered the American League East earlier this week. Let's take a look at the National League West Division in 2024.
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los angeles dodgers
Expected records (per FanGraphs, as of March 13): 93-69
Best case scenario: Shohei Ohtani has done everything that was expected of him, hitting over 50 home runs and is on his way to winning his third MVP award in four seasons. LA's elite lineup, with Ohtani sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, has established itself as the best offense in baseball. Yoshinobu Yamamoto showed the world exactly why he earned $325 million without pitching in the major leagues. Tyler Glasnow has set a career high in innings pitched and is thriving in Dodger Blue, while Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and others remain healthy and form a strong rotation. Clayton Kershaw is also back and contributing in some capacity. The Dodgers have been dominant throughout the season and are on their way to winning the World Series in a full season for the first time since 1988.
Worst scenario: The Dodgers' inability to live up to expectations is mainly due to the unmitigated disastrous rotation. Both Glasnow and Buehler are not healthy, forcing the team to assemble a rotation. Yamamoto struggled in his transition to the big leagues, Miller suffered a slump as a sophomore and Kershaw hasn't pitched this year. The Dodgers still make the postseason because their offense is too talented to produce results, but by the time October rolled around, their rotation was in tatters and they were eliminated in the first round, the worst in recent memory. It was one of my biggest disappointments.
Players who determine the outcome: Tyler Glasnow. It's no secret that when Glasnow is healthy, he's one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. His electric talent is the kind Dodgers pitching coach Mark Pryor probably dreams of, and it's also why the Dodgers signed him to a five-year contract shortly after acquiring him from the Rays. be. Still, the reality is that Glasnow may be the biggest gamble in baseball this season. His 120 innings last year were the most in a season of his career. LA is currently betting that health will be in the right-hander's future. If that happens, the Dodgers will have gotten a bargain. If they don't, they'll be kicking themselves.
Seasonal forecast: Despite not having a shortstop and some questions in the rotation, the Dodgers have so much talent that it's hard to imagine a world where they don't at least make it to the NLCS. They have three back-to-back MVPs in their batting lineup, and arguably the best clean-up catcher in baseball. Although there are some concerns about the rotation, the Dodgers have the depth to cover for injuries. Don't be surprised if this team challenges his MLB win record of the 2001 Mariners.
arizona diamondbacks
Expected record: 83-79
Best case scenario: The D-backs continue to attract attention for the second consecutive season, with a better lineup than the team that reached the World Series five months ago. The enhanced rotation is the best in MLB, led by right-hander Zac Gallen, who will win the National League's first Cy Young Award in 2024. However, it's not just the pitchers who are improving. No surprises this time around as Corbin Carroll's batting line continues to score as Arizona looks to find its way back to the NLCS.
Worst scenario: After shocking the baseball world in 2023, the D-backs have failed to live up to expectations and have been unable to build momentum in 2024. The rotation will have to shoulder the burden of an anemic offensive line that can't keep the team in games. The lack of run volume proved insurmountable as the D-backs missed the postseason.
Players who determine the outcome: Eduardo Rodriguez. Arizona made the biggest move of the offseason by acquiring Rodriguez to further strengthen an already strong rotation. He provides a veteran option behind Gallen and Merrill Kelly and gives the team a left-handed starter to compete with the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in this division. Several other players could have an impact on the D-backs' form this season, but few teams have three playoff-caliber starters, and Rodriguez is a young D-back on the rise. It should be a great asset for Steam.
Seasonal forecast: The D-backs' combination of speed, athleticism and power, along with their strong rotation, puts them in a good position to make even more progress this season. The biggest question will be whether their offense can keep up with their pitching, but Carroll continuing where he left off with his National League Rookie of the Year campaign should help with that. The D-Backs showed last season that they are not afraid of the Dodgers, and their rematch with Los Angeles in the 2024 NLCS will be must-see on TV.
[Read more: AL East season preview: What’s in store for the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in 2024?]
san diego padres
Expected record: 81-81
Best case scenario: The Padres are relying on a top-heavy lineup to remember who they are and become one of the best offensive lines in baseball. Manny Machado continues his journey to Cooperstown in search of an MVP-caliber season. Xander Bogaerts played like a $280 million man, and Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to form in 2021 with a 40/40 season and finished the year in the top five in MVP voting. Former White Sox ace Dylan Schiess is back in shape for 2022, forming a surprisingly solid rotation with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. San Diego's offense will lead the team to the NLCS, where they will have another chance to overcome the odds.
Worst scenario: Even with the addition of Mike Shildt as manager, there will be little change to the seemingly closed roster. The stops continued to slide in 2023, Musgrove suffered an injury and Darvish began to age. The combination of Machado, Bogaerts, Ha-Sung Kim and Tatis underperformed for the second consecutive season, and questions began to swirl in the absence of a scapegoat, Juan Soto, and ultimately long-time president A.J. Preller. This led to his resignation and his departure from San Diego. An uncertain but expensive future.
Players who determine the outcome: Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis had a solid 2023 after returning from shoulder surgery and a PED suspension. But for the Padres to be a title contender, Tatis will need to be the MVP-caliber player we saw in 2021. After stepping away from shortstop last year and taking on the challenge of becoming more mature as a player, Tatis gravitated towards making the right plays. on the field, winning the Platinum Glove in his first season at the position. If he put the same level of effort and attention to detail into his work at the plate, there's no telling what he could do.
Seasonal forecast: Unlike the past few seasons, when the starting rotation and bullpen did much of the heavy lifting, the offense will have to carry this team in 2024. There are a lot of questions about this team's pitching staff, even with the addition of Cease, but if there's one area the Padres should improve on, it's scoring ability. I wouldn't be surprised if this team is in the running for a wild card spot in the final week of the season.
Expected record: 81-81
Best case scenario: In true Giants fashion, they find magic in their ability to put together a lineup that ranks in the top 10 in on-base percentage this season and scores enough points to win 90 games. Jorge Soler adds a much-needed bang, becoming the first Giants player to hit 30 home runs in a season since Barry Bonds in 2004. Lee is an elite table setter for Soler and Matt Chapman and has rediscovered his power stroke in the bays along the way. It was such a great season that he released his contract at the end of the season. Logan Webb continued his upward trajectory and dominance, winning the National League Cy Young Award and leading the Giants to the National League Championship.
Worst scenario: Their batting lineup remains mediocre, ranking in the bottom third of the league in points scored. Solar becomes a victim of the cave-like space of Oracle Park. Chapman resembles the player he was for most of 2023, contributing little to the middle offensive line as Lee struggles to adjust to major league pitching. The starting rotation is unable to compensate for the offense's deficiencies and falls apart as the team misses the playoffs.
Players who determine the outcome: Lee Jung Hoo. The Giants haven't had much success acquiring players at the free agent position, but they finally found success with Lee. The South Korean native has a reputation as a dynamic offensive player, which is exactly what the Giants need. They aren't built to be a home run-hitting team, but with Lee at the top of the pecking order, they could be the catalyst for another point.
Seasonal forecast: The Giants' pitching staff will be in charge in 2024, but given that Webb has become one of the most consistent starters in baseball, there's a good chance he'll be the anchor of the rotation again this season. San Francisco's new offensive line will struggle some, but the lineup will put pressure on the rotation. The Giants will be playing for a playoff spot in July, but with the D-Backs and Dodgers ahead of them, they'll be looking from the outside in.
[Read more: 26-and-under power rankings: Evaluating all 30 teams by their young talent, from the Rockies to No. 1]
Expected record: 64-98
Best case scenario: The Rockies are playing good baseball and will derail a National League playoff contender. Nolan Jones and Kris Bryant become the newest additions to the Blake St. Bombers, hitting 70 home runs as a mid-major duo that will give Colorado a much-needed offense. Ezequiel Tovar and Brendan Rodgers solidify the Rocks' middle infield, with top prospect Zac Veen looking like a cornerstone for the future as he sips coffee.
Worst scenario: Since Bryant signed a seven-year, $182 million contract, he has missed 100 games in three consecutive seasons, leaving the Rockies without a big bat to carry the offense. Jones was unable to repeat his breakout season in 2013 and was left on the back burner. Young players failed to make an impact, pitching slumped, and the Rockies became the worst team in baseball.
Players who determine the outcome: Kris Bryant. Bryant has yet to play more than 80 games in a season with the Rockies. If he can stay healthy, the former National League MVP could put up ridiculous numbers at Coors Field and provide the pop right-hander Colorado was looking for when he signed. Otherwise, Bryant's contract could quickly become a major problem that hinders the improvement of an already struggling Rockies franchise.
Seasonal forecast: The Rockies will likely compete for the No. 1 pick in next year's MLB Draft. However, they are no less talented than the Oakland Athletics or Chicago White Sox. Bryant probably won't play 140 games this season, but he'll likely play enough to make a positive impact on Colorado's offense. Most importantly, Jones continues his rise and will represent the Rockies at the All-Star Game in Arlington, Texas.
