Georgia's retreating government needs tougher message from the West

For much of the period following independence in 1991, life was not easy for Georgians. But the challenges they now face are among the most dangerous and alarming in this country's recent history.

Georgia's government waged war on its own people. By aiming to pivot away from Euro-Atlantic integration, such as by seeking membership in the European Union (EU) and NATO, the ruling party is advancing despite widespread support from the majority of Georgians. The outlook is unique. It has become even stronger over the past 20 years. Opinion polls currently show 86% support for EU membership and 79% support for NATO. Both goals are enshrined in the Georgia Constitution, as amended in 2018.

On May 14, Georgia's parliament passed the so-called Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) Law. The law is known to opponents as the Russian law because it openly imitates repressive Kremlin laws. Georgia's prominent Western-leaning president, Salome Zurabichvili, has vowed to veto the bill, but the government says it has enough votes to overturn it.

The government said it intended to immediately use this law to curb the activities of many NGOs in Georgia. Riot police were sent to the streets to violently suppress peaceful protests. The protesters include many young Georgians who fear that their hopes for a European future are disappearing.

This is extremely worrying, as the leader of Georgia's ruling party, billionaire former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, addressed the party's youth wing, denouncing the US, NATO and the EU as “global warring parties”. It happened just weeks after he gave a Putin-style speech. '' and blamed Western countries for pushing Georgia into war with Russia in 2008.

I know Ivanishvili very well. As assistant secretary of state for European affairs from 2011 to 2015, I met with him many times in Tbilisi to discuss his decision to challenge then-ruling leader Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement.

When it became clear that UNM had lost the 2012 elections, the US and EU insisted that UNM transfer power to Georgian Dream. Ivanishvili formed a coalition government that included several Western-oriented parties.

While I and other U.S. officials, including the ambassador in Tbilisi, tried to convey to Ivanishvili our hope that a post-election crisis would be averted and that Georgia would continue on the path to democracy, it was clear that Europe It was linked to the advance of Atlantic ambitions.

Georgia's signing of the EU accession treaty in 2014, following Russia's first invasion of Ukraine, marked a high point in hopes for Georgia's future in Europe. The treaty included visa-free travel to the Schengen area and extensive trade privileges, as well as university scholarships for Georgian students in the EU.

Ivanishvili was obsessed with (now imprisoned) former president Saakashvili, whom he viewed as a pet project of the West (including President Bush's visit to Tbilisi and support for Saakashvili and UNM by the George W. Bush administration). Not entirely wrong, considering that )) began to dominate his outlook. As a result of this grudge match, Saakashvili was convicted and jailed in 2021.

There are many questions about Ivanishvili's past and true intentions. He made his fortune in Yeltsin and Putin's Russia, and when he decided to return to Georgia, he was allowed by Putin to move the wealth abroad.

He was an early supporter of Saakashvili, both financially and politically, but later broke with Saakashvili in a feud that continues to this day. An avowed supporter of Georgia's Euro-Atlantic initiative, he has refused to support sanctions against Russia in 2014 and again in 2022. And now, with the NGO law and his aggressive, anti-Western rhetoric, he is publicly aligning himself and Georgia with Moscow.

The United States and its European allies downplayed our role in peace negotiations in the South Caucasus and took no significant action when Azerbaijan seized Nagorno-Karabakh last year, effectively seizing it. It is no exaggeration to say that Japan has turned its attention away from the South Caucasus. More than 100,000 Armenians were evacuated, ending their existence since the 2nd century BC.

Recently, the US and EU have not had any significant impact on Georgia's rejection of sanctions against Russia and lack of support for Ukraine. The contrast between Moldova and the even more precarious pro-Western government of President Maia Sandu could not be more stark.

In recent years, interest from top US officials in Georgia has been minimal. The only U.S. officials who have publicly commented on concerns about Georgia's current policy are the ambassador to Tbilisi and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on May 11.

Given that the United States is preoccupied with the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict, among many other crises around the world, Ivanishvili says we can't afford to seriously challenge him. He may have decided that it wasn't.

Our respect for Georgia's democracy, which will be tested by October's crucial parliamentary elections, must remain the bedrock of our policies. The US and EU now need to communicate loudly, publicly and at the highest levels that Georgia stands to lose its transatlantic future if it continues on its current path.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee's bipartisan move to consider imposing sanctions on Georgia is a good first step. But let's be honest: the West is silent and unable to speak with a clear and strong voice.

James O'Brien, the US assistant secretary of state, told Georgian authorities on May 14 that a continued campaign of anti-American and anti-European rhetoric could lead to aid cuts. This is unlikely to surprise or worry Georgian Dream. And the EU's unusual silence on May 14 after the bill was passed, reportedly again due to opposition from Hungary, will only cheer Georgia's pro-Russian factions. (The committee's final statement was released on May 15.)

We are European partners and can ignore Ivanishvili's insults and slander, but we need to tell the Georgian people the truth. The Georgian people will lose 32 years of painful struggle and effort, and with it, hope for the future.

Ambassador Eric Rubin is a non-resident senior fellow in the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). He was recently elected President of the American Foreign Relations Association (AFSA) after serving as the U.S. Ambassador to Bulgaria (2016-2019). After graduating from Yale University, he joined the Foreign Service in 1985 and held numerous posts around the world, including in Russia and Ukraine.

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