Each season in Major League Baseball comes with its own set of prerequisites. The 2024 season, which is just one month away from starting, is no exception. Most of these annual expectations will eventually be achieved to varying degrees. But it's still early and there's some confusion on the guest list.
Among the major team sports, baseball is unpredictable and relies on randomness, so small sample sizes tend to introduce a lot of initial noise. That's the case now that April is almost over. We call such things surprises and consider them to be the opposite of the aforementioned expectations, for better or for worse.
So let's take a look at five of this season's most notable surprises across the baseball world, both on a team and individual level. These probably won't last the entire season, but for now they qualify as shocking events.
Whatever your definition of a “modern baseball dynasty,” the Astros should live up to it. They have advanced to at least the American League Championship Series in each of the past seven seasons, winning both in 2017 and 2022. Despite roster turnover, front office changes, and changes, they have remained successful. With dugout leadership.
The consensus prediction was that the Astros would continue to do well well into 2024. Yes, future Hall of Fame manager Dusty Baker retired and was replaced by first-time manager Joe Espada. But the core is back. Additionally, loan signing and old friend Justin Verlander has been around for much of this year, and lockdown closer Josh Hader was added in free agency. It would be surprising if we didn't make another playoff spot.
Now, as April draws to a close, the Astros are preparing for just such a surprise. As of this writing, the Astros are at the bottom of the American League West with 7 wins and 19 losses, which is understandably not even close to the American League. What's even more surprising is that they are carrying a minus-36 run differential. This suggests this isn't just some bad luck early in the season. The Astros have been really bad so far.
The main culprit is the pitcher. The Astros currently rank 28th in the majors with a staff ERA of 5.07 and a K/BB ratio of 1.90, thanks in part to an injury-plagued rotation. However, the Astros' scoring ranking (20th) is a little off from their OPS ranking (9th), so there is some hope on the offensive side. Perhaps it will even out soon.
Still, significant damage has already been done. According to FanGraphs, he has an 85.9% chance the Astros will make the playoffs entering the 2024 season. Currently, this number has dropped to 44.9% for him. It's hard to beat odds like this in one month, but the Astros did just that. Houston will have a tough time getting back in October.
This will be the first season in a while without captain Terry Francona at the helm of Cleveland. He will be replaced by rookie captain and former major leaguer Steven Vogt. Yet somehow, the Guardians find themselves on pace for his 117 wins. Of course, that almost certainly won't happen, but Cleveland has certainly improved in the past, finishing the season with a 76-86 record in 2023. We're used to the Guardians being something of a pitching factory, but this year the offensive line is in the spotlight. doing heavy lifting. Cleveland currently ranks 6th in the majors in points scored and 8th in OPS. Especially essential to the offense is first baseman Josh Naylor, who has posted a team-high OPS+ of 169.
Elsewhere, the rotation is mostly struggling without ace Shane Bieber, but the bullpen has its best performance in 2024 (119 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings, 2.31 ERA in relief) ). As you might expect, the bold start increased their chances of making the postseason. FanGraphs' preseason odds for Cleveland were 33.4%, but those odds are now in coin-toss territory. Also worth noting is the fact that the Guardians currently have the best run differential in baseball.
Yes, the Brewers won the National League Central Division last season, but losing manager Craig Counsell, one of the league's best managers, to the Cubs was shocking (David Stearns left for the Mets). Needless to say). . Another blow was how much they had reduced their starting pitchers from last season. Ace Corbin Burnes (traded to the Orioles before the season), co-ace Brandon Woodruff (lost the tender and re-signed, but will miss all of 2024 as he recovers from a shoulder injury), and serviceable back-ender Adrian.・Hauser left. (Traded to the Mets). With these moves, the Brewers lost 64 starts, 372 innings, and 32 quality starts, resulting in a combined ERA of 3.40. That's not to mention Wade Miley, whom the Brewers recently lost to Tommy John surgery. He started 23 games last season and posted a 3.20 ERA.
That's tough for any team to overcome, especially one in a balanced division like the NL Central. But so far, that's what Pat Murphy's Brewers have done. They went 16-8, achieving that record despite playing one of MLB's toughest schedules ever. FanGraphs said Milwaukee had just a 17.4% chance of qualifying for the playoffs heading into the season, but now has a 47.4% chance. While Milwaukee's past performance has been surprising, William Contreras' MVP performance as a catcher isn't all that shocking.
ranger suarez
The Phillies' 2024 rotation wasn't just about ace tandem Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, thanks in large part to Suarez's performance in April. The 28-year-old left-hander has started five games, including one shutout, and has zero earned runs and a 1.36 ERA in that time. Notably, Suarez's K/BB ratio is 6.40. Let's compare this to his career K/BB ratio of 2.54 before 2024. He's not a strong pitcher, but he has a deep repertoire and can use it very well. Additionally, Suarez has a strong tendency to hit ground balls, and this tendency was especially noticeable this season.
On the other hand, why is it shocking that a 36-year-old first baseman is cratering? That's a valid point, but Goldschmidt's previous seasons remain an unpleasant surprise. Granted, his surface-level numbers last season were down from his 2022 MVP campaign, but the quality of his contact metrics actually improved (and remained elite) in 2023. . Things like this tend to bode well for the near-term future, but that's not happening for Goldschmidt in 2024.
Currently, Goldschmidt's OPB is hovering around .300, his SLG is below .300, and he has about three times as many strikeouts as walks. What's even more troubling is that the numbers for the aforementioned quality of contact are plummeting. Goldschmidt ranks only in the 39th percentile in average exit velocity from the plate and only in the 21st percentile in terms of “barrel” rate. These are worrying trends for a player who was one of the best hitters in baseball throughout his career.
