Portugal's economy will grow by 1.5% this year, in line with projections in the 2024 national budget, but a tenth lower than the macroeconomic forecast set out in the Democratic Alliance's (DA) election manifesto, the government said on Monday. Maintained.
The forecast is included in the Stability Program (SP) for 2024-2028, which the government sent to Parliament on Monday and will send to the European Commission this month.
Macroeconomic scenarios presented by government authorities are designed based on unchanging policies. This means that only policies designed by the previous government and measures already planned will be taken into account.
The Treasury forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% this year and 1.9% in 2025, based on information available through March 31.
The forecasts underlying the National Budget 2024 (OE2024) presented by the previous government showed an expansion of 1.5% this year, while the DA (which brought together the PSD, CDS-PP and PPM in the March 10 elections) The Coalition's election program is based on this year's forecast for the General Election), which is based on the Fiscal Council's 1.6%.
In the Fiscal Council's latest forecasts published this month, the Nazaré da Costa Cabral-led organization maintained the Portuguese economy's growth rate at 1.6% this year and predicted growth of 1.9% in 2025. .
However, the Bank of Portugal sees GDP increasing by 2%, while the European Commission and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) see GDP increasing by 1.2%, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued new forecasts. We are planning to make an announcement. Tuesday – up 1.5%.
In its election plan, the DA projected a growth rate of 2.5% in 2025, increasing to 2.7%, 3% and 3.4% in 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively. In the 2023-2027 stabilization program, the former Executive had predicted 2% growth in 2024 and 2025.
The timing of this year's Stability Program submission is largely a formality, with the document becoming less important due to new EU budget rules and the medium-term budget and structural plans that member states must submit to Brussels by September 20. This is because it is replaced by .
Brussels has allowed the submission of a simplified program that only allows for the submission of two tables related to recovery and resilience plans (RRPs) and does not intend to rule on national stabilization programs.
The government will start negotiating a new medium-term plan with the European Commission in the summer, but the macroeconomic scenario that will influence new policy measures will not be known until September.
The stabilization program, approved by Portugal's cabinet on April 11, will be debated in parliament on April 24. CFP decided not to comment as the SP is based on a scenario without policy changes.
(Lusa.pt)
