The costs of climate change are mounting, but nearly 70 per cent of Canadians oppose the recent increase in the federal carbon price.
Carbon pricing works because when the price of fossil fuels goes up, people use less of them. A carbon pricing system gives citizens the choice of reducing emissions or paying taxes, whichever is cheaper. By not prescribing technology, households are free to choose the cheapest ways to reduce emissions, such as installing a smart thermostat, switching to a heat pump for their next home heating system, or buying an electric car as their next car. You can choose.
Read more: Carbon pricing works: Largest study in history leaves no doubt
Canada's carbon pricing is designed to be fair and effective. By putting a clear price on carbon emissions, this tax, along with other climate policies, has reduced emissions by about 8% since 2019.
In fact, the carbon tax returns most of its revenue to households, and the data shows that Canadians are better off with carbon pricing than without carbon pricing. What’s more, large industries are also not subject to a full carbon price.
But none of these benefits of carbon pricing outweigh the tangible costs people experience at the pump (an average 3.3 cents per liter increase in cost) and the cost of heating their homes.
Misinformation about climate change is further endangering policies as climate-skeptic politicians denigrate them in hopes of gaining popularity.
The Canadian Press/Paul Daley
Canada's large government spending is creating further skepticism about the use of carbon pricing proceeds. This raises the question of whether large welfare states like Canada's are particularly susceptible to public opposition to tax increases.
Why is there hatred?
Behavioral scientists have long known that people tend to have stronger emotional reactions to losses than to equivalent gains. Even if the benefits from an averted climate disaster far outweigh the costs of carbon pricing, that extra 3.3 cents of his still carries more weight than the sometimes hard-to-recognize benefits. Canada is not unique in this respect.
Our recent research environmental management journal use the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) environment module to assess cross-national differences in support for carbon taxes in 33 countries, focusing on government size as a contextual factor.
ISSP is a cross-border collaboration platform that conducts annual surveys in most high- and middle-income countries on social science topics, including environmental and climate awareness.
Our analysis confirms that public support for a carbon tax is low overall, averaging 52% across all cases. Switzerland had the highest approval rating at 66%, while Latvia had the lowest at 38%.
A recent poll in Canada shows a similar outlook, with half of the population completely opposed to carbon pricing. These numbers speak to the salience of carbon pricing and public prioritization of losses over gains when the focus is on pricing emissions.
In our study, individual factors such as left-wing political orientation, higher education, and avoidance of materialistic values are the strongest predictors of support for a carbon tax. However, these characteristics tend to be difficult to change in any meaningful way, at least not without significant time and effort.
Interestingly, we find that government size, measured as government revenue as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), matters.
The larger the government, the lower the support for a carbon tax. This means that raising carbon taxes in a country with a big government like Canada will require a lot of work, including how revenue is recycled or how other taxes are lowered, in order to gain widespread support. This suggests that there is a need to include clear expectations about But even these rationales may not be enough to shift strong anti-tax rhetoric, as the Liberal government's recent attempts to promote the benefits of carbon tax rebates and low-carbon investments have shown. unknown.
Too big to tax?
Is big government a big problem for Canada's climate future? Perhaps because of carbon taxes, but not necessarily because of other effective and less visible climate policies. Climate regulations such as zero-emissions vehicle sales mandates, low-carbon fuel standards, clean electricity regulations, and even industrial output-based pricing systems are increasing the cost of gas at the pump by a wide range of 70 to 90 percent. It has the support of the public and stakeholders.
Previous research suggests that passive public support in the form of broad policy acceptance without high policy awareness is sufficient to implement effective climate policies.
Read more: Carbon pricing alone is not enough — other measures are needed to meet Paris Agreement goals
Furthermore, although regulatory policies are generally more expensive than carbon pricing, they can be a more flexible approach and enable rapid emissions reductions at lower political costs. In fact, Canada already has many of these regulations and can be strengthened with or without a carbon price. Examples include recent electric vehicle availability standards, clean fuel standards, proposed clean electricity regulations, and proposed oil and gas methane regulations.
Even if carbon pricing looks expensive and regulation looks cheap (or invisible), Canada still has a chance to build a better future for its children. If we fail on both carbon pricing and regulation, big government will need to grow even more to collect more taxes to deal with climate disaster.
