Sean O'Malley will be looking for revenge at UFC 299. O'Malley will defend his UFC bantamweight title on Saturday in Miami against Marlon “Tito” Vera, the only fighter to defeat him.
O'Malley considers himself on the cusp of becoming a superstar. Pomp and circumstance can get you far in a fighting game, but you need a record to back it up. O'Malley looked every bit the real deal as he defeated former titleholder Aljamain Sterling. O'Malley can begin to carve a true legacy for himself against a hungry bantamweight contender. First, he must avenge his 2020 loss to Vera, a violent and ultra-tough fighter who was unstoppable in 32 professional bouts.
“Once we actually look at his record, let's just give you the facts,” Berra told CBS Sports. “He fought guys he'd never beaten in the UFC. He didn't even fight 50-50 fighters. Some of them were terrible.
“It was great to beat the champion. Well done. He moved well and defended the takedown. And of course Aljamain's striking was not the best and he hit the punches. Quite low level for a striker. Thing”
Other bouts on the card include Benoit Saint-Denis, who continues his meteoric rise toward a title shot against former interim champion Dustin Poirier. Saint-Denis is also located at around -230 favorites. All other matchups are virtual picks. Welterweights Kevin Holland and Michael “Venom” Page are scheduled to take down Holland, who stands at -130 as the last favorite to win the title. When Gilbert Burns and Jacques Della Maddalena meet, more welterweights get banged up. Maddelena is the favorite to win at about -160. The bantamweight division will begin the PPV with former champion Petr Yan taking on Song Yadong. In that case, the odds are equal on both sides.
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A lot happened on Saturday night, so before we get into our staff's predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festival, let's take a closer look at the complete fight card, including the latest odds.
UFC 299 fight card, odds
- Sean O'Malley (c) -280 vs. Marlon Vera +230, bantamweight title
- Benoit Saint-Denis -230 vs. Dustin Poirier +190, lightweight
- Kevin Holland -130 vs. Michael Page +110, Welterweight
- Jacques Della Maddalena -160 vs. Gilbert Burns +135, Welterweight
- Petr Yan -115 vs. Song Yadong -105, bantamweight
- Curtis Blaydes -125 vs. Jailton Almeida +105, heavyweight
- Macy Barber -210 vs. Katelyn Cerminara +175, women's flyweight
- Mateusz Gamlot -430 vs. Rafael dos Anjos +330, lightweight
- Kyler Phillips -260 vs. Pedro Munhoz +210, bantamweight
- Michel Pereira -155 vs. Michał Oleksiechuk +130, middleweight
- Robelis Despaignes -360 vs. Josh Parisian +280, heavyweight
- Asu Almabaev -500 vs. CJ Vergara +375, flyweight
- Marina Moros -230 vs. Joanne Wood +190, women's flyweight
With such a big main event coming up, the CBS Sports staff went ahead with their main card predictions and selections. Here's who you choose: Brent Brookhouse (martial arts writer), Brian Campbell (martial arts writer, “Morning Combat” co-host), Shakiel Majuli (writer), Michael Maumile (producer), Brandon・Wise (senior editor).
UFC 299 picks, predictions
| O'Malley (c) vs. Vera | O'Malley | O'Malley | O'Malley | O'Malley | O'Malley |
| Poirier vs Saint Denis | Saint Denis | Saint Denis | Poirier | Poirier | Saint Denis |
| Burns vs. Maddalena | Burn | Burn | Burn | Burn | maddalena |
| Holland vs. Page | page | Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands |
| Yang vs Yadon | Yang | Yang | Yang | Yang | Yang |
O'Malley vs. Vera
Campbell: O'Malley has been criticized for regularly saying that his only career loss to Vera in 2020 was a fluke and didn't count. But if you look a little deeper, you'll see that some of what he's saying isn't that far off. So, first of all, do losses count? Without a doubt. Vera injured O'Malley's leg, which hampered his movement, but he scored a TKO victory with ground and pound. But while O'Malley's injury was directly caused by Berra, there was an element of chance in how the fight unfolded. O'Malley said he believes he will beat Vera nine times out of 10 and said he is an overall better fighter from a technique and skill standpoint. He's also confident that he's now at the top of the sport's deepest division, with back-to-back wins over former champions Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling. With an iron chin and violent finishing skills, Berra will always have a chance to strike, and knowing he already defeated the breakout sensation almost four years ago, there is certainly no reason why he lacks confidence. Not. But with further maturity and experience, this is still a fight O'Malley will look to win, and potentially one of the easier title defenses for him given the incredible depth of the division. There is a possibility that it will become one.
Brook House: Vera's victory in the first fight should not be taken lightly. Kicking a man in the leg and inflicting an injury that leads to a TKO is not illegal in any way. Fortunately, MMA is not a sport where one loss tarnishes a fighter's legacy, except in extreme cases. Berra is very tough, but O'Malley is simply the better fighter. In that sense, they should be expected to win in the rematch. Martial arts history is full of cases where a “worse fighter” simply has the numbers of a better fighter, and it's not beyond the realm of possibility that this is the case with Berra and O'Malley. That being said, I'm riding with hopes that a better, more dynamic fighter will come out on top the second time around. That prediction is also supported by the fact that Berra's offensive ability is too often too low.
Majuli: Berra isn't the best candidate at the moment, but he does present an interesting challenge. “Tito” has never stopped in his 32 professional fights, becoming stronger with each fight. It's a daunting task for O'Malley, who has never run longer than 15 minutes before. Vera also scored a victory over O'Malley despite the champion's claims to the contrary. However, O'Malley has grown more than Vera since then. O'Malley showed tremendous improvement in his fights against Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling. To Yang, he showed a lion's heart. Against Sterling, O'Malley was incredibly calm and executed his game plan perfectly. Cory Sandhagen dominated in power and defeated Berra. I expect O'Malley to execute a similar plan to win by decision.
Poirier vs Saint Denis
Campbell: Poirier is a living legend, future Hall of Famer, and one of the most famous action fighters in UFC history, but since signing for this fight, there have been rumors that he may be competing in a matchup with the wrong opponent. There were deep-seated emotions. A bright red fighter jet at the wrong time. It appears his opponent, France's Saint-Denis, may be even better than he is being touted as a rising star on the verge of breaking out. After losing his UFC debut by decision in 2021, BSD has won five straight, all by stoppage, including a head kick to Matt Frevola in the first round at Madison Square Garden in New York. I just got KOed. What Saint-Denis lacks in overall experience against Poirier, he makes up for with pinpoint striking, devastating power, and a well-rounded skill set. Despite the heavy punishment Poirier received a few years ago, he could still find a way to pull off an even bigger victory. But with two stoppage losses in his last three fights, including a knockout loss with his own head kick in Round 1 against Justin Gaethje last July, Poirier may be nearing his retirement. Concerns about this are only increasing.
Brook House: Poirier is exactly the type of fighter that fight fans love. He's a great guy and an action-first fighter who has had an incredible career without ever winning a world title. He came closest by winning the interim lightweight title, then faced then-champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Poirier's career is progressing by the minute, and Saint-Denis is a very difficult match for him stylistically. Saint-Denis is good at takedowns, but Poirier has never been good at stopping them, with an ERA of just over 60%, which is pretty low for a fighter with his career level of success. If Saint-Denis can avoid the risk of standing and trading, and instead enforce his will with takedowns (he averages nearly five per 15 minutes), this should be a big win for him.
Majuli: Saint-Denis has a lot of potential, but the jump from Matt Frevola to Poirier is a sudden escalation. The final battle of Saint-Denis lasted only 90 seconds. We never had a chance to see how much his hitting and defense improved. This French player takes almost as much damage as he lands, as his defense is less than 50% of him. Poirier is a savvy, elite striker who takes advantage of mistakes. Poirier lost by knockout to Justin Gaethje, but he had a good fight, so it will be awkward to face another heavy hitter. But Poirier has the tools and experience to outwit Saint-Denis. He just needs to keep his head straight in a gunfight.
Holland vs. Page
Campbell: Page, 36, is set to make his UFC debut after many years of shining under the Bellator banner, following in the footsteps of his predecessors like Eddie Alvarez and Michael Chandler. Like most all-action lightweights, Page will be severely tested in his first Octagon appearance as Holland. From a skill standpoint, this is a match that the Netherlands, who are the slight favorites, must win. But Holland has a history of playing down to his opponents' level while deviating from his game plan, so he could pay a price if he decides to stand up and trade for the MVP. . One of the most creative strikers in MMA history, Page thrives in unpredictable situations. Unless Holland takes shots early and often in hopes of exposing Page's rudimentary ground defense, this fight feels like they'll pick up their legs. And if MVP can slow down Holland's performance with his unconventional striking threat, a successful debut could be in the cards.
Brook House: Page couldn't have asked for a better UFC debut than a match with Holland. Holland is a “name” in the UFC, but he's not invincible. Page was given a lot of soft matchmaking in Bellator, but it's hard to complain when it led to so many memorable moments. On the feet, this is a fairly competitive fight, with both able to exploit the other's weaknesses. Page has little to offer Holland on the ground. Holland is dynamic and dangerous on the canvas. Dutch has the strongest advantage anywhere in this fight, so he must be considered the right choice to win.
Majuli: Holland isn't a world title caliber fighter, but neither is Page. Holland's combination of technique, power and aggressiveness is formidable even against MVP's more elusive and technical strikers. Remember, Holland is a capable offensive wrestler and a submission threat as well. It's a grappling defense that has the Netherlands in trouble, but that shouldn't be a concern in this game. It's a winnable fight that could go either way, but I'd side with Holland as he's a more well-rounded and experienced fighter.
UFC 299: Who will win O'Malley vs. Vera 2? How exactly will each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for more coverage on UFC 299 from MMA experts who have made over $6,200 in profits Get detailed picks and check them out.
