Global leisure travel spending is projected to reach $9,332 billion by the end of 2029, an increase of almost 50% from 2023. Today's consumers believe in the value of travel and are willing to prioritize it. But the vacation they crave is changing.
Demand for experiential travel is surging due to the growing desire for unique and immersive experiences. Tourists are ready to take some risks and fully commit to the culture and cuisine of a destination. At the same time, travelers are increasingly concerned about sustainability. These are competing concerns that travel companies need to balance.
Additionally, disruptive technologies such as generative artificial intelligence (AI) are changing the way customers plan and book travel. From new experiences to new destinations, here's how leisure travel will evolve in the coming years.
The sun and sea are still beckoning
When choosing a destination, sun and sea leisure packages will continue to be a top choice for travelers around the world for the next four years. Based on Escalent's analysis, spending in this area is projected to increase from approximately $107 billion in 2024 to $233 billion in 2028.
Cultural and heritage tourism is expected to become even more popular in the future, with spending in this sector expected to more than double by 2028. Consumers are seeking destinations rich in history and culture, and regions such as the Middle East are seeing increasing numbers of tourists. Adventure tourism is following suit, with spending set to more than double from about $45 billion in 2024 to $103 billion in 2028.
Wellness and ecotourism are also emerging as niche segments as consumers seek to align their travel plans with their lifestyles and values. Wellness travel is expected to surpass his $70 billion in annual revenue by 2028. Meanwhile, ecotourism is projected to increase from approximately $15 billion in 2024 to $34 billion in 2028.
New experiences, new priorities
Emerging travel categories broadly reflect these themes. Rail travel is projected to increase by 35.6% year-on-year from 2023 to 2024. Sustainability has become an urgent concern for travelers, with many looking for ways to reduce their carbon footprint while continuing to enjoy the benefits of tourism. In response, companies are adjusting their approach to meet traveler expectations, with 46% expecting to increase their environmental, social and governance (ESG) investments in 2024. I am answering.
Elsewhere, travelers are seeking curated experiences based on their interests and priorities. Luxury travelers are choosing locations based on shopping quality, and duty-free shopping trips are projected to increase by 24.9% between 2023 and 2024. Gourmet lovers are looking for new opportunities to satisfy their taste buds, including traditional cuisine, gastronomic tours and farm tours. Food and beverage trips to the table will increase by 15.7% year-on-year in 2024.
Festivals and leisure events are also attracting attention as a driving force for tourism. From 2023 to 2024, this travel category is predicted to grow by 16%. This trend was especially evident last year, when headlines were dominated by the huge economic impact of events like Taylor Swift's Ellas Tour and Beyoncé's Renaissance World Tour. Travelers use these opportunities as anchors for longer trips, spending several days exploring a region and spending money on food, lodging, and experiences while on the road.
population movement
The main sources of outbound travel are expected to remain largely unchanged over the next decade, with China and the United States expected to maintain their positions as the world's top source markets. But China's growth is expected to far outpace that of the United States, with spending expected to increase by 131% between 2024 and 2033, according to Escalent's analysis. By contrast, U.S. spending will increase by 35% over the same period. European markets such as Germany and the UK are also expected to remain important, driven by demand for intra-regional travel.
One of the factors that may affect tourism is the aging of the population. As the number of people aged 65 and older increases, demographic changes are expected to result in an influx of retiree travelers, especially in rapidly aging countries such as Japan and China.
This trend is also reflected in how families use their vacation time. Travelers are increasingly choosing to include grandparents and other relatives on their trips, likely to make up for time lost during the pandemic. In fact, 55% of parents say they plan to take a multi-generational vacation next year.
off the beaten path
— Source: Escalent
Where will the next decade take leisure travelers? Everywhere. According to Escalent analysis, intra-regional travel trends within the United States and demand for popular locations in the Caribbean and Central America are driving strong growth in the Americas, with the United States, Canada and Mexico remaining the top destinations. It will be. In Europe, Spain, Italy and France will lead the market, with Spain expected to generate the most tourism revenue from 2024 to 2033.
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is perhaps the slowest to recover from the pandemic. However, new measures to promote tourism and strong interest in countries such as India, Japan and Thailand are bringing travelers back to the region. China's travel market is predicted to grow by 158% between 2024 and 2033. The Thai market lags slightly behind in size, but it is expected to grow by 178% over the same period.
The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region has experienced a remarkable recovery post-pandemic. After Qatar hosts the 2022 World Cup, Gulf countries are vying to host bigger events that are likely to draw large numbers of tourists. Meanwhile, countries such as Morocco and South Africa remain popular tourist hubs, with travel spending in South Africa predicted to increase by 143% by 2033.
“Ducks at the destination” Affordable alternatives to bucket list destinations are attracting budget-minded travelers. Curacao, as an example, is gaining popularity through social media as an alternative to more expensive Caribbean islands like St. Maarten.
In some regions, new visa policies are also spurring growth. In Europe, continental travel is expected to increase with the addition of countries such as Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria to the Schengen Area. Similarly, the introduction of unified visas for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will facilitate travel to and within the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. .
accessible luxury
Several factors will contribute to the global growth of travel in the coming years. Whether domestic, regional or international, travel has become more accessible and destination awareness has increased thanks to an increased reliance on digital tools, from online booking agents to social media. In 2024, 84% of consumers said they prioritize travel on a budget.
The number of Chinese outbound travelers is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels again for the first time in 2024. Chinese travelers, with their large disposable incomes, desire for far-flung destinations, and preference for traveling in large groups, will have a significant impact on the industry, especially as their volumes increase over the next decade.
The emergence of new outbound tourism markets such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Myanmar and Estonia is expected to inspire a generation of travelers seeking off-beat destinations, often on online channels such as YouTube and Instagram. I get inspiration from the content I see. Finally, there is growing interest in niche experiences such as sports travel and ecotourism, and package sales in these two categories are projected to increase by 15% from 2023 to 2024. .
prioritize travel
Despite the impending boom, the travel and tourism industry still faces headwinds to overcome. Costs are rising globally, with hotel prices expected to increase by 7% in 2024 compared to the previous year. Rising airfares and lodging prices may prompt travelers to seek workarounds, such as avoiding peak seasons or finding alternative destinations.
The labor market remains tight, with more than half of travel executives saying a lack of skilled workers is a major operational hurdle. Tourists are concerned about climate change, with 51% saying it could affect their travels. Additionally, geopolitical instability is making it difficult for consumers to plan future travel, which could negatively impact fast-growing markets such as Egypt and Poland.
That said, tourists have made it clear that leisure travel is a priority. Consumers are optimistic about travel, with 40% expecting to travel more in 2024. The average number of trips for a traveler next year will be 2.7 times, while in 2023 it will be 2.3 times.
values-driven traveler
The next decade will be marked by an increased reliance on technology in the industry. Travelers are already relying on digital tools to plan and book their trips, with 80% of consumers preferring to book their entire trip online. As generative AI gains traction, it is expected to play an important role in the industry. Experts predict this could become his $28 billion opportunity, thanks to applications such as operations, customer support, travel personalization, and advertising.
Tomorrow's tourists will be driven by a desire for unique and authentic experiences that reflect their values. In response, brands are moving towards a consumer-centric model that focuses on delivering personalized and customized products. Travelers are increasingly turning to trusted online sources to find vacations that satisfy their desire for meaningful and memorable experiences, and emerging brands and destinations are finding niche markets in this evolving landscape. We have a great opportunity to develop.
