On paper, Saturday's UFC 299 looks like one of the most competitive main cards in years. The event is scheduled to be held at the Caseya Center in Miami, and all five games have fairly close odds as people try to decipher who to bet on.
Sean O'Malley will look to defend his bantamweight title for the first time against Marlon Vera in the main event, but the favorite is -280. In fact, Vera upset O'Malley in their first fight of 2020 with a TKO victory after injuring his foot.
Other bouts on the card include Benoit Saint-Denis, who continues his meteoric rise toward a title shot against former interim champion Dustin Poirier. Saint-Denis is also located at around -230 favorites. All other matchups are virtual picks. Welterweights Kevin Holland and Michael “Venom” Page are scheduled to take down Holland, who stands at -130 as the last favorite to win the title. When Gilbert Burns and Jacques Della Maddalena meet, more welterweights get banged up. Maddelena is the favorite to win at about -160. The bantamweight division will begin the PPV with former champion Petr Yan taking on Song Yadong. In that case, the odds are equal on both sides.
As expected, he got off to a rough start with 1 win and 4 losses at UFC 297, but bounced back with 3 wins and 2 losses at UFC 298, bringing his yearly record to 4 wins and 6 losses. We set out to identify the best plays in all of Saturday's main card battles, with the goal of increasing our annual record to over .500 by the end of every match.
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Take a look at our picks for the best bets for the main card of UFC 299.
Petr Yan vs Song Yadong
Petr Yan's money line (-115)
Yan enters this match having lost four of his last five matches. On a surface level, it suggests that Yang is a complete elite-level fighter. Digging a little deeper reveals that these losses were against heavyweights in the bantamweight division, one by disqualification and two by split decision. Yan may be out of the title picture, but he likely still has plenty of gas left in the tank and should be fired up against Yadong, whose style matches Yan's signature style nicely. is. Yadon has some good numbers on his resume, but he has also lost out to Kyler Phillips and Cory Sandhagen in recent years. The play here is not to try to find a way to win, but to employ simple moneyline plays for more established fighters with more tools to win fights.
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Gilbert Burns Moneyline (+140)
This fight could be determined entirely by Burns' willingness to put in the effort to finish the fight. If Burns can get a takedown, there's a good chance Della Maddalena will sink in a big step-up fight like this. Dela Maddalena was able to escape Bashir Hafez with a split decision despite spending more than five minutes of the first two rounds under Hafez. Burns is a decorated and dangerous grappler, and if Della Maddalena finds himself under Burns for any significant amount of time, he probably won't make it in time for the final bell. Alternatively, despite having heavy hands, Burns has slightly stronger legs and Della Maddalena has incredible boxing skills. I have to believe that Barnes' team has made him fully aware of the importance of closing the distance and deciding the game. So it's worth throwing a little late after a small upset.
Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page
Fight far: No (+110)
These two fighters have a combined 72% of their matches ending before the final bell. When you factor in the fact that both men's styles mesh well, it seems a little ridiculous that a fight that doesn't go the distance is only worth the money. This fight could end at their feet at any time, depending on whether one of them lands a big shot or a powerful charge. Holland could also take the fight on the ground and find a submission against Page, who hasn't really had to step up his grappling game thanks to mostly favorable matchmaking in Bellator (7 fights in his career) . Plus, the money to end the match before the end of the third round is the kind of generous line you have to jump all over.
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit St. Denis
Benoît Saint-Denis Moneyline (-210)
Admittedly, it feels a little bad to face Poirier, who has been one of the easiest players to root for in the sport for the past decade. But as they say, style breeds conflict, and this is not a good combination for Poirier. The former interim champion's takedown defense has never been solid, successfully defending his takedowns 63% of the time. Saint-Denis is averaging 4.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. Saint-Denis has a clear path to victory. He closes the distance and puts Poirier on his back. It's a little hard to tell if Saint-Denis can get a submission or knockout betting on the winning method, so we'll stick to the moneyline.
Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera
Sean O'Malley Verdict (+100)
Vera is a dangerous challenger, as evidenced by his defeat of O'Malley in the first round. But replicating that success won't be easy. Especially as O'Malley has grown in her confidence and become a more dynamic fighter in recent years. Vera is incredibly durable and has never been stopped in his career. Considering all factors, it feels like O'Malley is poised to earn her decision win. Berra is more likely to get hit than he is to get hit, but still manages to shut out every fight, while O'Malley has never gone past five rounds in his career. It feels like the most likely outcome is the best play.
UFC 299: Who will win O'Malley vs. Vera 2? How exactly will each fight end? Visit SportsLine now for more coverage on UFC 299 from MMA experts who have made over $6,200 in profits Get detailed picks and check them out.
