A total of 156 golfers are scheduled to tee off at the 2024 PGA Championship this week, and as much as we'd like to believe everyone has a chance to win the Wanamaker Trophy at Valhalla Golf Club, history tells us otherwise. It suggests that there is no. There are 21 PGA pros and even some past champions who are there just for a little fun. There are also players who are just out of shape playing on the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, or LIV Golf.
That's not to say it's impossible to catch lightning in a bottle…just look at Phil Mickelson three years ago. He defied conventional wisdom, arriving at Kiawah Island without finishing in the top 20 that calendar year and leaving the South Carolina coast with the Wanamaker Trophy and his sixth major championship. Oh, and all this happened at the ripe age of 50.
There were other close calls with unlikely candidates like Southern Hills' Mito Pereira, but Brooks Koepka three times, Justin Thomas twice, and Colin in his championship debut. When you look at the list of winners that includes Morikawa, it's hard to overlook his quality. Number of players likely to win their second major championship this year.
With all that in mind, we take a look back at the 10 most recent PGA Championship winners and see what trends are trending as we narrow down the field of 156 players to pinpoint this year's champion Let's try.
1. Official World Golf Ranking
While the rankings have lost some accuracy and completeness in the wake of the LIV Golf drama, they are still healthy for a points-earning tour. They'll have to be a little flexible here, as nine of the past 10 winners were ranked inside the OWGR top 50 at the time of their win (Mickelson was ranked 115th). Seven of the past 10 have finished in the top 12, but this list does not include Koepka from last season. Let's start with the top 50 cutoff points for players on tour. do Receive points.
Excluded: Non-LIV golfers not in the OWGR top 50, especially Jake Knapp, Adam Scott, Taylor Moore, Alex Nolen, Tiger Woods, and Michael Brock.
2. Your bet will not change even if you change the course.
The PGA Championship has gone through a lot of changes over the past decade. In addition to changing golf courses, the championship has been moved up on the calendar from August to May. That switch happened in his 2019. Either way, quality has proven to be an important barometer, especially in this championship. Nine of the past 10 champions have finished in the top 20, with the only exception being Morikawa, who won in his debut (2020).
Excluded: Dean Burmester, Adrian Mellonk, Joaquin Niemann, Andy Ogletree, David Puig, Windham Clark, Saheeth Segala, Ludwig Oberg, Matthew Pabon, Byung-hoon Ahn, Tom Kim, Nick Taylor, Denny McCarthy, Akshay Bhatia, Nikolaj Højgaard, Stefan Jaeger, JT Poston, Adam Schenk, Austin Eckrot
3. What have you done for me lately?
major champion Rarely Mickelson, a six-time major champion, won several times on the Champions Tour that fall and actually held a first-round lead at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks before his victory. Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Thomas (2017) already have multiple wins, while Koepka (2018, 2023) and Morikawa have also been in the winner's circle in their previous few starts. Nine of the past 10 winners finished in the top five at least once during the calendar year.
Excluded: Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson, Viktor Hovland, Lukas Glover, Rickie Fowler, Siu Kim, Emiliano Grillo, Harris English, Kurt Kitayama, Corey Connors
4. Pedigree of major championships
Six of the past 10 winners already have big wins on their resumes. McIlroy, the last winner at Valhalla, had already won three at the time of his victory. Last year's champion, Koepka, had already won four. Morikawa bucks the trend again – this was his second major championship – but nine of the past 10 winners have finished in the top 10 at least once at a major championship.
Excluded: Sam Barnes, Lucas Herbert, Taylor Gooch
5. Let's talk about technology
If your finishing position doesn't help, the data you get on your stroke may be having a negative effect. The past 10 champions have all averaged positive strokes gained per round over the past three months, with Mickelson and Walker coming in at the back with +0.43 and +0.04, respectively. When you see this, you understand that they flew under the radar. The same can't be said for Day (+2.03), Koepka (+2.09) in 2018, Thomas (+2.36) and McIlroy (+2.86) in 2022. Overall, this group's champion averaged his gains of +1.64 strokes per round. This benchmark is the one we use, much to the chagrin of many recent major champions and many potential contenders.
excluded: Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Brian Herman, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Russell Henry, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Justin Thomas, Im Sung-jae, Will Zalatoris, Lee Min-woo
That leaves…5 golfers.
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama
Scheffler has won four of his past five games and is by far the best player in the world with every statistic to back it up, but can he survive a month of rest en route to his second major championship of the season? McIlroy is fresh off a winning streak and will be aiming for his first major title in 10 years at the golf course where he last won the Wanamaker Trophy. DeChambeau not only won this year's Masters, but also took the lead in the first round of last year's PGA Championship, returning to the major leagues. Will he string it together for all 72 holes?
Meanwhile, Schauffele continues to be a top-10 machine statistically, but players of his skill level have to go out into the world at some point and win big golf tournaments away from strong contenders. It won't happen. Matsuyama may be the biggest question mark following his withdrawal from the Wells Fargo Championship, but if he stays healthy he could add another big trophy to his mantle.
