The NBA Draft is more complex than ever for a variety of reasons. On lottery night, the biggest reason is that the league has adopted a new, trade-friendly approach to roster management. Teams hand out first-round picks like candy these days.I ranked Of all the quality first-round picks traded last offseason, 56 of the 210 total tradeable picks were loaned to teams other than their original owners. In other words, if trends hold, we should expect to see roughly a quarter of first-round picks transfer in the modern NBA at any given time.
Each of these picks has a different string connected to it, which creates quite a bit of confusion. Some of them are protected, some are not. Some things need to be communicated right away, while others may take years to finally pay off. For certain picks, the acquiring team had the opportunity to either defer it for a year or acquire it immediately. That pick will belong to the Los Angeles Lakers this season, as the Pelicans are expected to postpone the final part of the Anthony Davis trade until next year.
With the NBA Draft lottery just around the corner, let's take a look at the 14 picks whose slots will be decided on Sunday. Who actually owns these picks, and under what circumstances might they change hands?
- Nine of the 14 picks to be decided on drawing night will remain with their original owners. These picks went to the Detroit Pistons (1st lottery pick), Washington Wizards (2nd pick), Charlotte Hornets (3rd pick), Portland Trail Blazers (4th pick), and San Antonio Spurs (5th pick). belong to , Memphis Grizzlies (7th), Atlanta Hawks (10th), Chicago Bulls (11th), and Sacramento Kings (13th). Several of these teams traded picks that could theoretically be conveyed in 2024, but the associated protections prevent any team from making a move during this draft. These 9 teams are just waiting to see which ping pong ball will be pulled out and where they will pick it.
- The number 6 slot currently belongs to the Toronto Raptors. However, they traded a 2024 first-round pick to the Spurs as part of the 2023 deal for Jakob Poeltl. Of note, they gave that pick top-six protection. The Raptors aggressively tanked to protect the pick, but as a result, it became almost a coin toss as to who would actually get the pick. There's about a 45.8% chance he'll stay in the top six and thus remain in Toronto, but about a 54.2% chance he'll fall to seventh or lower and thus move to San Antonio.
- The No. 8 slot currently belongs to the Utah Jazz. He has top 10 protection, so he's almost guaranteed to be with them. If he finishes outside of the top 10, he will be sent to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the 2022 Derrick Favors cap dump. However, the odds basically guarantee this pick will remain with the Jazz. Three of the six teams at 9-14 would have to jump over Utah to give Oklahoma City this pick. The Jazz have about a 99.5% chance of keeping this pick.
- The No. 9 spot, originally owned by the Brooklyn Nets, will go to the Houston Rockets no matter where he ends up. That pick was traded to Houston without protection in the 2021 deal for James Harden.
- The No. 12 spot, which originally belonged to the same Rockets, will most likely be given to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the Russell Westbrook trade in 2019. However, this pick is top-four protected. The probability of the Rockets retaining the pick is about 7.2%, while the probability of giving the pick to the Thunder is about 92.8%.
- The No. 14 slot, originally owned by the Golden State Warriors, will most likely be taken by the Portland Trail Blazers. The pick has been traded several times, the first being when the Warriors released Andre Iguodala's cap to the Memphis Grizzlies in 2019. That pick was sent to Boston as part of the 2023 Marcus Smart-Kristaps Porzingis trade, and then to Portland as part of the 2023 Jrue Holiday trade. However, this pick comes with top-four protection. The probability of finishing No. 14 and going to Portland is about 96.6%, but the probability of finishing in the top four and staying with the Warriors is about 3.4%.
That covers the lottery, but what about the rest of the first round? In total, six more first-round picks have already been moved, and a seventh is technically next in line. there is.
- The Pelicans could acquire the No. 17 pick from the Lakers, or they could wait a year and acquire the unprotected 2025 pick. The latter is currently expected, but New Orleans has until June 1 to make a final decision.
- The Pacers sent the 19th overall pick to the Raptors as part of the Pascal Siakam trade.
- The Pelicans acquired the right to trade a 2024 first-round pick with the Bucks as part of the Jrue Holiday trade. Coincidentally, they both had the same record of 49 wins and 33 losses (as did the Phoenix Suns). The Bucks won the tiebreaker and finished in 21st place, the Suns in 22nd place and the Pelicans in 23rd place. However, because the Pelicans exercised their swap rights, New Orleans would pick with the 21st pick. Milwaukee will select with the 23rd pick.
- The Mavericks sent the No. 24 pick to the Knicks as part of the Kristaps Porzingis trade.
- The Clippers originally sent the No. 26 pick to the Thunder as part of the Paul George trade, but the Thunder traded that pick to Washington at the deadline. The deal sent Daniel Gafford to the Mavericks and his future pick swap from Dallas to Oklahoma City.
- Oklahoma City sent the No. 29 pick to Indiana as part of a draft-night trade last June, but the Pacers sent that pick to the Raptors in a trade for Siakam, and the Raptors also sent that pick to Indiana in a trade on the 21st for Kelly. Sent jazz with Olynyk. deadline.
In total, that means there could be as many as seven first-round picks and as many as 12 first-round picks on teams other than the original owner before the draft begins. Given the inevitability of draft-night trades, it's likely less than half of the first round will belong to the team that originally owned those picks. That's the new NBA we're living in. One day we may see a draft in which all 30 first-round picks are replaced.
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